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Most Recent Articles

Winning Ugly Is How Pro Gamblers Bet NFL
Jun 23rd, 2022

One of the calamitous self-fulfilling prophecies in sports gambling is the blockhead who insists on mindlessly betting on the far superior side. They mitigate this by proclaiming they’d prefer to lose waging on a prodigious team (like the Patriots during the Brady era) than on a dreadful one. Therefore bookies shade the line towards the superior teams and against the bottom feeders, while sharps pounce upon the empirical rule to buy low and sell high.

Why would anyone want to bet against a team with a winning percentage of .850 or better, especially corroborated with at least 12 wins? No rational person could contemplate staking against a team that predominate. Then again, we pros would call attention to the fact stated teams are a wretched 48-80-3 since 1996. In fact, when underdogs, they are a malodorous 3-14 for .176 percent.  

Wager hard-earned money on a gruesome team? That’s just embracing punishment. Experts counter with the fact an underdog with winning percentage of .150 or less and at least four losses are 350-269-17, even greater on the road at 195-167-4.

Why would anyone not crave to bankroll the much hotter team? The rejoinder if fact based. When I say opposite streak, it pertains to one team on a SU winning streak and the other on a losing streak. If New England won three in a row, the Giants, their adversary lost two in a row, the “combined opposite streaks” would be five.

Not outrageously, the greater the number of the dichotomous streaks are, the lower the ATS winning percentage of the ascending team plummets.

Here is the ATS record of the hotter team based on the cumulative streak they are on.

Minimum opposite SU streak of hotter team

ATS Mark (winning percentage)

8

198-228-7 (46.5)

9

135-160-7 (45.8)

10

89-113-4 (44.1)

11

57-82-3 (41)

12

36-64-1 (36)

When Joeybagodonuts sees a team that has won their last seven confronting a team that has flunked outright in five straight, Joey may pass. He may bet the hotter team, but there is slim chance he will bet the ice-cold squad. Therefore, if the genuine line should be -7, Joey will have to lay more like -9. This is pivotal for a gambler. Of course, it’s excruciating to root for a grossly inferior and colder team, but the payoff is magnificent.

Great ESPN evergreen story about Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy’s rise to greatness an where he got his start! Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

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Gambler Billy Walters Influence on the Greatest Capper Ever Explained
Jun 11th, 2022

When I first burst into betting ascendancy full-time back in 1988, I got wind of the famed “Computer Boys” betting syndicate headed by renowned gambler Billy Walters. Ages before the interwebs and services like DonBest, we procured our odds from J&J odds service, via a telephone rundown. But they also had a callback service for when they believed the boys placed a bet. The Burger Man and the cute-looking daughter of the owner were among the workforce that had us on speed dial.

That was the era of corner bookie, hence we would customarily conquer the line moves getting great middle prospects by betting with several outlets.

Still, I was most fascinated with the influence and science of referenced betting consortium. I wanted to replicate and eclipse their conquests. Via Computer Sports World, I unearthed a software package developed by distinguished statistician Dr. Mike Orkin, “The Pointspread Analyzer.” It changed my life. I matured into the numbers cruncher I aspired to be. Inputting countless data, I confirmed many theories, humbly refuted others in objective testing and trial while identifying previously undreamt-of betting systems, exploring literally almost any valuable state of affairs germane to a sports trader.

How does an NFL team following three straight double-digit wins execute ATS against a team off subsequent double-digit losses? Should I ride or fade an NBA team with winning percentage of .750 or higher if they are off a loss? Is it consequential if they are playing home or road? What a war chest of knowledge I had at my fingertips.

The bulk of my theories proved to be well-founded, reinforcing my contrarian conceptions before there was such a thing. It is good to pick bad was certified. Sinking and substandard teams had great value, superior and ascending teams were overprized. This reality is sustainable today. The rabble relishes betting on the better and hotter team and the oddsmakers recognized it then and distinguish it now.

Written in DOS, Orkin’s Windows version Snoop Data wasn’t as user-friendly. Sadly, the niche program faded away. To the rescue was SportsDataBase, a terrific cloud-based program coded by a physicist Dr. Joe Meyer. BetLabs, subsumed by the multi-million-dollar Action Network is satisfying too, but once one masters the SQL language of Meyer’s program, it becomes a more lethal weapon than BetLabs or StatFox.

Though my site OffshoreInsiders.com is a mom-and-pop shop competing against Fortune 500 companies, there is one reason I proceed to prosper as both a gambler and professional handicapper: the merit of the finished product. My obsession with bias-free computer-aided testing, achieving thousands of manhours of research with the push of a few keystrokes, endures me as cutting edge. My hunger for reproducing the triumph of Billy Walters computer group has not waned in more than 30 years of computer implemented handicapping. Enjoy the ride with me fellow sports investors.

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Artificial Intelligence in Sports Betting: The Good, Bad, and Ugly
Jun 7th, 2022

Power ratings, computer models, simulators have become all the rage in recent years. Pretty much every high-traffic sports site tenders their own edition. But are any even worth a crap in beating books like Bovada? The answer is yes…and no and in some cases are no…and yes.

There is a lad I’ve been exchanging intel with for years. He’s a big-time whale and stakes more per wager than most will bet in a month. He prefers not to be named, so I will call him Sugar Pockets. Pockets has been gripped with computer-aided handicapping. He conducts surveillance on Prediction Machine, Team Rankings, Predictem, Oddsshark, Foxsheets, MasseyRatings, Accuscore, Sportsline and keeping comprehensive records, splitting by sport, college and pro, side, moneyline, even if they are better isolating favorites or underdogs, overs or unders.

With samples sizes that stretched multiple years and each with hundreds of games in football and thousands in other sports, I was a bit underwhelmed at first. Though Sugar Pockets demonstrated that past performance was indicative of future results, my reasonable doubt was based on how can this simulator be so good in NBA and NFL, yet a fade in college basketball? Other programs were just the opposite. 

In being even-handed, I acknowledged how some good ole-fashioned human cappers were terrific only in specific sports. So, it’s logical even upper crust models would be superior in one or two sport year in and year out. It wasn’t until a handful of months later the lightbulb went off on top of my head. Doh.

With my computer systems—a different AI than prediction software, I ascertained years ago and continue to run to the bank with understanding that pro sports tend to be about overcorrection and statistical regression, while college sports is more about momentum and riding streaks.

Upon my manifestation, Sugar Pockets results all checked out. Sportsline for example is very weighty on recent play, making it good in college basketball, but no-so-much in NBA. In fact, spoiler alert and hot tip, their NBA totals are pretty much auto-fade. Inversely, Accuscore puts more significance on full season results often contradicting Sportsline.

I hook Pockets up with some intel as well. But now that I have accurately weighted meticulous in-depth crib sheet to guide me, the simulators and machine intelligence is used as a part of my repository. As technology evolves, so must us pro cappers. I have plenty of “it’s not broken, don’t fix it” formulas, but careful calibration ensures the best will keep progressing into in the future. 

There is no best gambling outcome emulator overall. But the strengths and weaknesses vary from sport to sport for the sensible preceding explanations. And the opportunities and obstacles of each are glaringly profitable.

Vetted sportsbooks and top shelf handicappers at OffshoreInsiders.com led by the author, Grandmaster Handicapper Joe Duffy.

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Dooleys Believe in Trap Games; Sharps Use Them to Their Advantage
Jun 2nd, 2022

I hear it all the time from squares and even people who used to sell picks for a living such as retired tout Oscar Dooley, widely accepted as the quintessential tyro handicapper in this history of the trade. “Seems like the oddsmakers are baiting you to bet” a certain side. Dunces like this keep the books subsidized for the rest of us. Assuredly, the bookies never try to decoy gamblers into betting a side. If they did, we sharp would swoop in on our prey and exploit the over-corrected line. Then again, in reality we do pounce on lines that appear “fishy” to the great unwashed bettor.

My adage, if it doesn’t make sense, it makes dollars. Straight up records and rankings are lag indicators. The odds are lead indicators. I have countless examples of counterintuitive systems that win in my database, most up 80-200 plus units and with z-scores of 4.5 or higher.

Though the below aren’t instances of my most lethal systems, they are representative of occurrences in which I hear are “trap” games.

In college football, when the oddsmakers tell you the lower ranked team is the superior team, weaponize that knowledge against them. If a lower ranked road team is not getting at least three points to the higher ranked team, betting on the lower ranked squad is 12-2 SU and ATS since 2015. 

Remember, home field advantage is three points. So if a road team is not getting at least that much, the strongly implied statement by the oddsmakers is that the visitor is better, despite the polls. But that’s not how the neophyte brain functions. Joey Bag o’ Donuts notices the “better” team is somehow a home dog and asserts, “It’s like they bookies want you to bet” the superior puppy. Fake news. The lead indictor wins out again. 

How about win a team is an NFL favorite even though they have at least four fewer wins than their opponent? Trap, trap, trap…right? Not so fast. A favorite, despite at least a four-win deficit is 40-22 ATS, 44-21 outright.

But surely fading NBA favorites with inferior records must be a great go-against. Seems like a trap though… Away favorites in said situation are 314-235-7 for 57 percent. In fact, the bigger the favorite the winning percentage goes up as a general rule of thumb.

If a game looks like a trap, there is a reason behind it. Go with the statement the oddsmakers are making. There are plenty of Spider Dooleys feeding the bookies.

The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com and has been winning for you since the scorephone days of the 1980s.

 

 

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MLB Handicapping and Fantasy Baseball: ERA Versus WHIP
Jun 1st, 2022

I share oodles of information and debate philosophies with many sharp players on a continuous basis. Such locking of horns is imperative to knowledge progression.  Said argumentations are to handicapping advisers what scholarly journals are to academia.

One of the most heated deliberations among the sharpest of the sharks is how to weigh a pitcher’s ERA relative to his WHIP.

I realize most baseball fans know what an ERA is, but many are not as versed on WHIP. The formula is walks+hits/innings pitched.  As much as I savor involving myself in debate with other masters of the trade, inevitably I am the one screaming the remedy is both. 

I tell them it’s the equivalent of asking a doctor whether one should diet or exercise.  Sure, conquering one or the other is better than neither, but any reputable physician advises they are not mutually exclusive.  

A true handicapping scientist knows that careful interpretation of both ERA and WHIP neutralizes the inherent flaws of both while reinforcing the stronghold of each numerator.

Here is a pro-WHIP argument I often hear and articulated on rec.gambling.sports newsgroup by one of the participants:

The ERA can be affected by good fortunate (luck) far more than WHIP.

The walks and hits that a pitcher gives up show his skills facing a batter and will rise as he continues to allow hits and walks as it should.

But the same poor pitching, which allowed the walks and hits onboard, isn’t necessarily reflected in his ERA stat.  He may escape lucky. His ERA can be affected either direction by the help he gets from his mates and/or the wind and/or the size of the ballpark.

This is particularly important in the first handful of starts of the early season, where averages can be easily skewed by a few innings.

A pitcher allowing a 400’ shot to center for example when a breeze is blowing in or the fielder makes a circus catch over the wall” escapes with no runs scored, saving his ERA.

But in a different park the same 400’ shot to center is a homerun, or the wind blows it in the gap for a double to score a couple of runs and his ERA goes up!

So, one fortunate guy gets a low ERA and the less fortunate guy, who allowed the SAME number of hits and walks, maybe even LESS, his ERA goes UP!

Meanwhile, the WHIP stat is not affected unfairly in that way, and as such I feel it more indicative of the pitcher’s skill.

I agree with many of the points raised but the dissertation was a bit one-sided review of the pros and cons.  

WHIP can be very imperfect as well. It does not measure a pitcher’s ability to pitch out of tough situations or whether he gives up a disproportionate number of singles and walks relative to the pitcher who has a propensity to give up the long ball.

Pitchers who can get the ground ball double play when they need it or can bear down with runners in scoring position will generally do better in the ERA category than WHIP.

Plus, in a discussion with some of the top baseball predictors on the planet, one of the elites of the elite reminded us that the team that scores more runs wins 100 percent of the time. The team that gets the most walks plus hits often loses. As devil’s advocate, I added the team that gets the most runs is not always the team that allowed the fewer earned runs.

Hence, I must be adamant as an inescapable stipulation that because baseball’s definition of earned runs is not without glitch, especially from a handicapping standpoint, an old hand also must pay heed to unearned runs. After all, there are no such things as an unearned hit or walk in the WHIP stat.

However, seeing some of the top handicapping geniuses get in heated dispute of the pros and cons of each statistic only reinforced what I believed all along: the few wizards out there never, ever ignore one math unit at the expense of the other.

As the sports doctor the only baseball picks that I give my patients will be from knowledge that a steady diet of winners involves exercising both ERA and WHIP.

Duffy’s picks anchor OffshoreInsiders.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.

 

 

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Emotion and Sports Handicapping
Jun 1st, 2022

I write this article knowing there is nothing joyful about benefiting from tragedy, albeit in this case indirectly. But every now and then off field tragedy causes an emotional response from players that cannot be manufactured or duplicated, nor should be ignored by gamblers, as impure as it seems.

I keep hearing after-the-fact experts telling us that no team was going to beat the New Orleans Saints in their Monday night game against the Atlanta Falcons, the first game in New Orleans in the post-Katrina era.

We told you all that before the game as New Orleans was our Monday Night Game of the Year. In short, New Orleans was playing in no uncertain terms, the biggest game in franchise history, while Atlanta was simply in the way.

While I do not mind bragging, I have to admit, I am an after-the-fact Bill Buckner and Jacky Smith all wrapped into one in missing the Rice intangible. Before I go in any further, I will again acknowledge, there is a certain level of unease in exploiting tragedy in sports handicapping but ignoring such angle benefits only the bookmakers.

Rice, a double-digit dog, crushed Army 48-14. They were riding the emotion of freshman defensive back Dale Lloyd collapsing earlier in the week at practice and passing away.

In 2001, our MLB Game of the Year was when the NY Mets played their first home game since 911, and were a home dog to Atlanta. True, the Mets had to get a dramatic walk off home run from Mike Piazza to win, but the seemingly scripted ending was reflective of how the Mets were simply not going to be denied victory that night.

One of my first NHL regular season selections was November 15, 1985. I bet on the Philadelphia Flyers in their first game back after star goaltender Pelle Lindbergh was killed in a car accident. The Flyers, as a big underdog, dominated the then seemingly invincible Edmonton Oilers. 

I even decided to retroactively test this theory. Is there a more poignant sports speech in history than Lou Gehrig’s “Luckiest man in the world” speech. Honestly, I didn’t know the game score was that day, but I researched it convinced there was no way the Yankees lost. I was right; they crushed the Washington Senators 11-1 following that historic speech on Independence Day 1939.

Emotion should never be underestimated and simply cannot be contrived.  Regrettably opportunity knocks when real-life circumstances transcend sports.  But it is opportunity nonetheless.

Joe Duffy is founder of OffshoreInsiders.com which features the world’s best handicappers.

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Don't Get Defensive, Take Offense to Winning
May 3rd, 2022

If only the old cliches were true, handicapping football would be a piece of cake. You know, “Winning begins with defense” or “Games are won at the point of attack”. If this were true, Buddy Ryan’s old Eagle teams with Hall-of-Famers and Pro Bowlers galore would have won a few Super Bowls. They never won a playoff game.

Marty Schottenheimer eventually lost his job in Kansas City because his final team went from Super Bowl favorites to regular season flop because his mega-talented defense was always on the field.

When you consider that the line is affected much more by the quality of skilled position players than anything else, if the old cliches were true, defensive dogs would hit about 90%. 

When was the last time a game was taken off the board or circled solely due to the injury of a great defensive player?  The answer is probably the same as the last time a quarterback’s status was unknown and the game was on the board and not circled in every sports book.

One of the biggest reasons that so many gamblers, not to mention football fans have this misconception is that they do not draw a distinction between a great offense and a high powered one.

Great offenses are not the ones that can consistently beat a team with a 60-yard bomb, but teams that can over and over again get 15-20 play seven-minute scoring drives.

Also, there is no such thing as depth these days, so a few key injuries to skilled position players can literally mean the difference between worst and first.  

Indianapolis and Denver entered 2001 as among the favorites to win the Super Bowl and rightfully so. However, neither made the postseason and not surprisingly. Both teams were devastated by injuries.

Indianapolis became the quintessential team that put up seemingly impressive stats, but knowledgeable handicappers and football fans know that there is a big difference between impressive fantasy football numbers and quality statistics for winning on the field and with the offshore book.

Great offenses keep defenses off the field. The greatest team of all time was the 1972 Miami Dolphins, who not-so-coincidently had the greatest ball control team ever.

They gained an average of 5.6 yards per play. Their fourth leading rusher averaged 5.3 yards per carry. The reason their “No Name Defense” was so successful was because you don’t give up many points or much yardage when you are standing on the sidelines watching your offense meticulously move those yard markers.

Great offenses are not measured by points scored. There are no official statistics, but much like the complicated quarterback ratings, a more accurate formula for measuring a successful offense would take strongly into account points per possession and average length of each possession.

There is a colossal difference average points per game and average points per possession. Likewise, there is a monster divergence between time of possession and length of each possession.

The best, if not the only way to slow down the St. Louis Rams when all their pieces are healthy is to take them out of a rhythm. If Kurt Warner is watching seven minute drives by his opponent from the sidelines, not only can he not develop a groove, but he will not throw too many touchdown passes from the sidelines.

The best defense is not just a great offense; it is a great ball control offense. But yes, long drives punctuated by scores are the best defense because it is a lot easier to play defense with a big lead when the other team’s options are limited.

When of the biggest gifts when it comes to NFL totals is when it comes to a stud ball control offensive player is hurt, most people falsely assume that their games become lower scoring. False. Often teams must compensate by opening it up more. It is no coincidence that when Edgerrin James went down with injury last year, the Colts games became much higher scoring. They still had the aptitude to score, but not an ability to keep their suspect defense off of the field.

Do not give me balderdash about the stats Dominic Rhodes put up. Do not get me wrong, he is one of the best backups in the league, but he was facing defenses geared to stopping the pass and no matter how you slice it, he is not in the same class as James.

While the chic media told you how disappointing Denver’s defense was, I guarantee you if Terrell Davis and Ed McCaffrey were healthy, not to mention the arm of Brian Greise, magically the Broncos would have had some of the best defensive stats in the league.

Also, before you say that the Ravens of two years ago and the Patriots of last year, were defensive oriented teams, one must consider the factors. There were just were not any great healthy, note healthy offenses out there, so some mediocre team had to win by default.

Not to mention, we all saw clearly that the Ravens missed chain-moving Jamal Lewis and that the Patriots “defense” suddenly improved when Tom Brady looked like the greatest Cinderella story since, well Kurt Warner.

This is not to mention that the Ravens became the ultimate aberration of winning a championship with a mediocre offense with a defense that some say was the best ever. Not one of the top in the game, but maybe the best ever. Plus, let’s face it, Brian Billick one of the game’s top offense minds, proved you can get blood from a stone by somehow making (gulp) Trent Dilfer a mistake-free quarterback.

If you want great defensive stats, get a great ball control offense. But the most important caveat is that that offense has to stay healthy. The Cowboys of the early 90’s and the Broncos of the late 90’s are perfect examples. The difference between a team among the bottom statistically on defense and at the top is a great quarterback, running back and receivers/tight ends. Both the aforesaid teams more than met that.

So, you want another undefeated team like the 1972 Dolphins? Give me two thousand yard rushers (in a 14-game schedule) and someone the caliber of Jim Kiick as a third option. Add two parts much better than average QB’s like Bob Greise and Earl Morrall. Throw in nice receiving corps and I give you another No Name Defense with any starting unit in the NFL.

But what does this mean in handicapping?  Again, as alluded to, convoluted logic so often applies to totals when a key offensive player is hurt. In many cases, it increases the likelihood of points being scored contrary to popular belief.

The same is true on the other side of the ball. If a run-stopping middle linebacker is hurt, it often will mean that the other team will run more. It may mean that they will have more success on offense but not necessarily score more points. It could mean more ball control, thus fewer total possessions.

Good handicappers must evaluate all injuries in their totality. Bookmakers make a fortune because suckers assume that if a key offensive player is hurt, it is likely to mean fewer points or if a key defensive player is out, it means more points.

The oddsmakers know and adjust accordingly. Joe Q Public adjusts incorrectly. But someone must subsidize our winnings.

Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com is the top source for winners on the Internet  He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. Check out his daily news and notes at JoeDuffy.net

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Better Quarterbacks and Running Backs Often Mean Lower Scoring Games
May 3rd, 2022

Tom Brady is the most valuable player to the New England Patriots defense.  Steve McNair has greatly improved the Baltimore Ravens even if the pure numbers do not seem to jibe with that statement.  I should clarify, that is pure numbers to the uneducated eye.

If Michael Vick got injured and Matt Schaub took over as quarterback, the Atlanta Falcons would probably get more yards and points, but would not be a better team.

Dan Marino and Barry Sanders were the two most overrated players in the NFL during my lifetime.

All the above statements are true, have or had serious handicapping ramifications, and are all related.

There is no question that the best defense in football is a ball control, effective and efficient offense. We love quarterbacks like Brady, McNair and Ben Roethlisberger because they run an offense like water torture.  They slowly but surely matriculate an offense down the field, keep the other team from scoring by not letting them have the ball.

In the cases of Vick, Brady, McNair and Roethlisberger among others, they may have a backup who will point more points on the board.  The problem is, for both teams.  When handicapping the ramifications of a key injury, especially a quarterback and running back ,one must analyze not just how much of a talent drop-off there will be, but a comparison of the style of the player and his replacement.

That's why I made the statements about Marino and Sanders.  Both were too much of a feast or famine player. High powered offenses do have to “outscore the opposition, which at least in the figurative sense does not mean the same as score more points.

“Better offenses are not necessarily ones that can score the most points by any means, nor are the best players and schemes those that are the highest powered and explosive” agrees Stevie Vincent of the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.

When handicapping skilled position players, note that the most effective in leading his team to victory is one who can keep help keep the other offense off the field, even if it means fewer points scored for his team.

Draft Kings, Sports Interaction, Betway, Unibet, theScore Bet, Prize Picks, Parx, Betfred, BetRivers, FanDuel, WynnBET, PointsBet, Caesars, BetMGM, all fear the picks of Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com     

 

 

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Computer Stats Biggest in the NBA
May 2nd, 2022

Arguably the sport we hear run-of-the-mill gamblers and fair to middling touts claim is the hardest to predict would be the NBA. Some even imprudently claiming it’s a true crapshoot. We strongly disagree, but that is because we are learned enough to realize not all weapons used in handicapping are weighed evenly in all sports. For example, with college basketball here, our news and notes from our private clipboard has endless valuable lowdown.  They are compiled from hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases.

But in the NBA, the computer programs become most valuable. Retired NBA handicapper Curt Thomas will be the first to admit he is not a great expert on team personnel and is even more upfront in admitting it cost him in other sports, when he had his own service. However, he is a certified computer nerd. He found the sport that had the highest number of unique systems with lofty z-scores was the NBA and not surprisingly the one that past results were a precursor to future final scores. 

Using winning percentage to date, margin of loss/victory in recent games, and pointspreads to measure perceived difference in quality between opponents, top a list of parameters in which he finds comparing teams in similar situations in past years goes a long way forecasting future results. Thomas believes with the so many x-factors involved in NBA travel schedules over an arduous season, the patterns of when a team suffers a letdown or has a fire lit under them, are much more distinguishable than all the other sports combined.

Forensic handicapper Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com  agrees even though he uses trends and angles instead of systems. Again, systems are not team specific such as “Bet with a team with a winning percentage of .600 or above off a double-digit road loss”, while angles are team and/or coach specific. “We use angles with great success picking pro basketball totals” Vincent says. He believes forensic handicapping is best in using past patterns to distinguish when teams will adjust the pace of games, hence a goldmine for predicting over/under plays.

Those computer nerds getting picked on by the jocks in high school was quite easy to predict. Talk about revenge of the nerds, now the propeller heads make their biggest profits knowing the high paid jocks are every bit as predictable, especially in pro basketball.

 

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Not All March Madness Betting Beliefs Are Urban Legends
May 1st, 2022

Our last article articulated our enthusiasm regarding an ESPN Insider series. It was scientific study that found common attributes on overachievement and underachievement teams in March Madness. We believe scrutiny and application will only increase our “Lord of the Big Dance” status. A great many of our articles, over the years, focused on exposing and fading gambling myths. But not all commonly held beliefs are untruths.

A great many of our articles, over the years, focused on exposing and fading gambling myths. But not all commonly held beliefs are untruths. 

There were some trends that the research found are more in tune with perception. Perhaps topping the list is the importance of experience. Coaches with at least 10 tournament appearances and teams with at least four straight tournament bids did very well both in beating higher seeds or holding serve when they were the better seeded team.

However, not surprisingly “experience” was significantly more affective when combined with other top performing factors, such as frontcourt scoring ability, star power (defined as “All Americans”). This is consistent with what we’ve stressed for years. Having been there and done that is icing on the cake, but not the entire package by any means. In other words, a talented and seasoned team is better than a gifted newbie, but maturity in and of itself has little value if not backed by ability. 

One finding that I’m not sure whether to categorize it as contrarian or widely accepted, but instead classify it under a more significant umbrella: invaluable foreknowledge. When united with other attributes, teams that enter the tournament on a one-game losing streak do exceptionally well in the tournament.

This should come as a surprise to nobody, though it likely does. We used the terminology of the study, but perhaps the term “streak” is a misnomer. Teams that enter the Dance off one and only one loss obviously are not “streaking” in the wrong direction. This of course is not flawless. Hypothetically they could have lost 4-of-5 as an example, but it would be the exception. Capturing conference championship means winning three or four games in a row, usually in as many days and it the case of the big conferences, with as little as three days rest before the Field of 65.

A team off a loss is almost always an at-large team and will generally be better rested than the conference champs. A little wake-up call before the tournament starts will be a positive for a quality team. Let’s face it, teams that are good enough to make the Field of 65, somewhere along the line showed they have an ability to rebound from a one-game setback.

Not to mention, both the NCAA committee and the betting public can tend to overreact based on an early exit in the conference tournaments.

The ESPN quantitative analysis of course, was not gambling specific, so hence it will not produce direct and specific systems to apply. However, the trial and error have beyond reproach produced very advantageous rules of engagement for the sports gambler during March Madness pointspread betting.

Joe Duffy is former General Manager of the Freescoreboard scorephone network and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.comthe premier hub of world-class handicappers.

 

 

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Exposing One of the Biggest Square Betting Myths in History
Nov 17th, 2021

Just don’t do it. The square player buys it hook, line, and sinker and thinks it’s the De Vinci Code of NFL betting.

So often we warn gamblers about the mortal sin of using inductive rather than deductive reasoning. The quintessence of that is the rapid circulation of the insipid illogic of “all you have to do is pick the straight up winner of a game and chances are you will have the spread winner.” It’s always followed by some stat where the outright winner has covered 80 percent of the time.  Dah. 

As any semi-literate gambler knows, when an underdog wins they cover 100 percent of the time.  The favorite cannot cover unless they win outright.  It’s impossible.  The only scenario in which a team can win and not cover is when the favorite wins but by a smaller margin than the spread.

Not shockingly the numbnuts who perpetuate unscientific preposterousness almost always quote stats relevant to the NBA or NFL.  In college sports there are more mismatches and hence larger spreads where the margin is larger for a favorite to win and not cover.

If a team is a 3.5 point favorite the only way the team that wins will not cover is for the favorite to win by one, two or three points. Any other result will have the team that wins covering.  At what percentage do these half-wits think a team should win and not cover?

Obviously the stupidity of this widely circulated inductive blather can be refuted from now until eternity.  Or at least until an underdog wins but fails to cover, whichever comes last.  But to those who subscribe to it as if there is any logic, thanks for keeping the books in business for the rest of us.

Since the prevailing premise behind this urban myth is “it’s so much easier to pick the SU winner than the spread winner” why don’t these fancied geniuses just pick dog winner after dog winner on the moneyline?

There are plenty of underdogs that win outright, many huge dogs in fact.  If one wants to postulate how much easier it is to pick the SU winner, why waste such foreknowledge on collecting $100 for every $110 risked?  Just keep picking those 250 dogs and get your money’s worth.

I don’t want to ruin this fool’s gold with such a logical question, but like I keep saying, I guess those pipe dreamers are needed to keep the books in business for the rest of us.

No oddsmaker will go broke underestimating the intelligence of the betting public.

The author Joe Duffy has been a successful professional handicapper long before the Internet. Duffy burst on to the scene as scorephone legend “JD of the ACC”back in the 1980s and is now CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com

 

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How do Accumulator Odds Work?
Mar 16th, 2021

Accumulators can turn tiny stakes into big profits, but how exactly do they work? Read on to find out.

What are Accumulators?

Just what is an accumulator bet? Those from North America might be familiar with accumulators under the name parlay, and if you’re into exchange betting you may know them as multiples, but they’re all essentially the same type of bet.

Accumulators involve a single stake on multiple different contingencies occurring. If you have six football matches on a weekend, you could have a six phase accumulator predicting the result of each match. Naturally, the odds on this sort of bet occurring are significantly longer than single market betting (a result bet on a single football match, for example), but the flip side is that if they do come off you can make a lot more profit than you would with a single event bet.

Accumulators are just one weapon in the smart bettor’s arsenal when it comes to making money. Another, and potentially the most prudent way to bet, is at no deposit USA casinos where you can make profits without paying a cent in deposits thanks to generous promotions. These deals enable players to compete for cash prizes with slots or table games, with the only possible outcomes being real money profits or no loss whatsoever. If you’re a cautious player, this is the perfect way to play.

How the Odds are Calculated

The odds on each individual contingency are used to calculate the overall accumulator odds. And because of the multiplying effect, if you go for outsiders the odds will be far, far longer than backing favourites. Usually, accumulators have at least four stages. This means that even odds of around 3/1 can lead to a total accumulator chance of one or two hundred to one.

To get mathematical about it, the odds are calculated by converting the odds of each individual leg of the accumulator into decimals and multiplying them. This can mean a significant payout even if you’re just backing favourites.

If you’re unsure of what to bet on with this new method of playing, you can do worse than to take advantage of free tipsto help give you a head start and decide on what the best strategy might be.

Other Long Odds Betting Approaches

The long odds are the major draw of accumulators but they’re not the only way to get long odds with a credible chance of coming off. Another approach is to go for a long term approach by backing results years or even decades down the line.

Of course, the dream is the freak result as happened with Leicester City in the EPL. A title bet on this team could be had at a mind-boggling 5,000/1, leaving many fans with a small fortune for bets they made with little real hope of profits. Unfortunately, the very magnitude of this title triumph has led the betting industry (in the UK, at least) to reduce the super long odds that rank outsiders used to get, for fear of a second Leicester City result.

Luck always plays a factor in betting, and sometimes you can enjoy an enormous slice by being online when news breaks (just one more advantage of betting online). When Hamilton caught COVID-19 and was out of the Sakhir Grand Prix in 2020 it took bookies a few minutes to catch up. In that time, you could get 60/1 on eventual winner Perez to claim the victory, which is pretty tasty for a single event bet.

Accumulator Pros and Cons

The first pro is the most obvious: get an accumulator to come off and you’ll make far more than you would with a series of single event bets (and with a lower stake). The corresponding con is that if even one aspect of your bet fails, the whole thing falls through.

This can be mitigated somewhat, depending on what your sportsbook offers. Each way accumulator bets mean that instead of backing a precise result you get paid if your winner places (it’s commonly available top 2 or top 3 for F1, and maybe top 4 for horse racing). This gives you a much better chance of winning. Be aware that each-way bets can only be placed alongside full-win bets (the upside to this is that if your picks all come first then you get the huge odds payout and the smaller each way profits too).

Some bookies also allow players to get their stake back, with neither profit nor loss, if a single leg of an accumulator fails to come off.

Accumulators can be very good for free sports bets that sportsbooks regularly offer, because there’s no risk of loss but if your bet comes off then you can turn a tiny free bet stake into hundreds of pounds/dollars.

Mid-Accumulator Betting

Accumulators don’t have to be placed on events occurring on the same day, and sometimes mid-event betting moves can be a wise idea.

One option is to hedge a potential loss if all but the last one or two legs of your accumulator have come off, you stand to make a fortune, and you’re nervous about losing out at the final stages. In this circumstance, probably the wisest way to hedge is to bet against the specific outcomes you’ve backed on an exchange (where you can oppose as well as back specific results), or you can make the relevant bets at the same place you have the accumulator.

Cunning tipsters are always available to give you an inside line if you’re unsure of things might play out, and this can be used to inform your strategy with an accumulator that’s going well so far but still has a few phases to go.

Some sportsbooks also offer cashout options for bets, which is an available option for accumulators at increasing numbers of sites. This means you get profits immediately but at a far lower rate. It does, however, totally eliminate the risk of loss.

Accumulators can be a great way to try win a lot with a little, but keep in mind that a single failure means the bet won’t come off.

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Will Canada's Single Event Sports Betting Legislation Impact the US?
Mar 16th, 2021

Canada’s fallen behind the US when it comes to single-event sports betting, but this might be about to change if current legislative efforts are anything to go by.

Single Game Sports Betting in Canada

To bettors in the United Kingdom, and Europe generally, the idea of being able to bet on sports but not a single sporting market sounds utterly bizarre. But that’s the current state of play in Canada, which has had a peculiar approach to betting legislation in various ways for some time, not least the ambiguous stance to online gambling and the ban on single sports betting.

There are plenty of great tips for players to take advantage of whether sport-specific or general principles, but for the most part players prefer single-game betting. A single market is much more straightforward and thus has a better chance of paying out, whereas parlay bets have multiple contingencies and the player loses if just one result doesn’t go their way.

However, this strange Canadian prohibition on single-game sports betting could soon come to an end if current legislative moves (which, unusually, are supported across the political spectrum) come to fruition. In February, a private member’s bill to that effect passed its second reading in the House Commons by an overwhelming margin, indicating the very high chance that the bill will become law further down the line.

It’s not just online sports betting that’s restricted in Canada; the country has a very grey approach to online casinos too. Whether slots fans or card sharks, USA real money casinos are places where winning real money is possible and can often be done by taking advantage of promotions. Better yet, there are usually hundreds of slots and many table games, including live dealer versions. Some sites even combine casino and sports aspects, so you can bet on your favourite team and relax spinning reels all under the same virtual roof.

Billions of Dollars in Benefits

Kevin Waugh, one of the MPs sponsoring the bill, has expressed his hope that the vote will prove a boon for Saskatchewan and Canada’s sports sector. Waugh cited the scale of the single game sports betting industry, which stands at an estimated $14bn. Two-thirds of this is through the Canadian black market, with the remaining $4bn occurring legally, but benefiting offshore betting operations.

Naturally, the Canadian central and provincial governments make no money whatsoever, as overseas betting is to the advantage of other countries, and underworld betting syndicates are not renowned for their civic-minded approach to taxes.

The Canadian Gaming Association (CGA) has also calculated that only around $500m is placed in legal provincial sports betting in a year. This is not surprising, as any bettor knows that a parlay bet (also known as a multiple or accumulator) is far less likely to come off than a single bet, and is correspondingly less attractive to players most of the time.

The government bill to address this, C-13, has since been pulled but the private member’s bill, C-128, is still on course and is endorsed with substantial political backing. If it comes into effect, this should massively reduce criminal (and overseas) sports betting, benefiting the Canadian authorities significantly.

The Changing View of Sports Teams, and the US

An attempt a decade earlier to make similar moves failed, partly because professional sports bodies were opposed to legalizing single-game sports betting. However, this attempt to just ignore reality (Canadians are going to bet on single-game sports markets, the only question is whether they pick offshore or criminal options if the country refuses to make it domestically accessible on a legal basis) seems to be at an end.

One of the reasons for that is the situation south of the border. The US has typically been more puritanical than Canada on betting matters, so it’s perhaps unexpected to find more liberal legislation in America than Canada. Nevada and New Jersey led the way, and now around half the states have some measure of legal sports betting. Given the Canadian-US nature of various sports competitions, this has naturally attracted a number of Canadian bettors. Major Canadian sports leagues now stand in favor of the proposed legislation.

There is still an argument about the risks of addiction, but Waugh has suggested limits could be imposed to try and counter this. And it’s certainly the case that government authorities, responsible to the electorate, will be more interested in mitigating the risks than criminal gangs.

Affecting the USA?

The widespread and growing sports betting industry in the USA means that American players are probably unlikely to move en masse to Canadian betting sites. Perhaps the more significant impact will be Canadian players who may prefer to win and lose with domestic rather than American sportsbooks. However, this will add more competition to the mix, particularly for leagues that are combined US-Canadian affairs, and that may help make odds a touch more generous as sportsbooks try to attract players.

All that said, there are still various states where sports betting is not on the table domestically, and this may be another avenue for keen sports fans and bettors in America to have a wager. It will also add to the head of steam that already exists for more states to liberalize their sports betting laws, for fear of players doing precisely that. After all, if players are going to bet, most states would want the income that comes with that to go to the state, not to Canada.

Players have plenty of different ways to decide on how to bet, whether that’s backing a favorite team, opting for home advantage, or taking a long hard look at the stats. One alternative is to make use of free tips by professional tipsters to give yourself an edge over the sportsbooks.

It’s been a long time coming, but it seems the death knell for forced parlay sports betting may have been sounded. The legislation hasn’t completed its journey yet, but it enjoys strong support and it seems to just be a matter of time.

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Why Legal Sports Betting is Good for the NCAA
Jan 26th, 2021

Find out why legal sports betting is good for the NCCA and will allow championships in different states and give punters more choice in online bookmakers. H1: Legalizing Sports Betting is good for the NCAA

The long-awaited decision from the Supreme Court came last week and the federal ban on single-game sports betting in states other than Nevada was struck down. In the biggest news event in recent sports betting news, the court ruled that the federal government had overstepped its powers by infringing on states’ rights in violation of the 10th Amendment when it passed the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act.

Delaware and New Jersey are ready to pass sports gambling legislation in the next couple of weeks and there could be at least 20 more states to do the same in the next couple of years. This will allow for more online sports betting sites to be able to accept bets during major sporting events - something that has been available at legal betting sites in Canada for years.

The NCAA however is pressing Congress to enact another federal law regulating sports betting. They feel that a law needs to be passed to protect the integrity of its games and have argued that without federal protection, the games and athletes will be open to match fixing. The NCAA is worried because unlike professional athletes who are often paid huge salaries, college athletes are only paid in educational benefits. This has been the reason why some gamblers have been able to get athletes to provide insider information or fix games.

Legal Sports Betting on NCAA Games Has Advantages

The NCAA institutions have been looking for ways to keep fans engaged and attending games and the Supreme Court ruling could be the answer. Sports betting makes a lot of money and according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, around $300 million was spent on the NCAA Basketball Tournament in 2017. An additional $150 billion was wagered illegally on sports betting in 2017 and $10 billion of this was on the NCAA Tournament.

Gambling is not a threat to college athletics and has been legal in Nevada since 1931. The NCAA and the Nevada sports books work together to keep the games clean and monitor against game fixing. These efforts will become more enhanced as more states legalize sports betting. As more money is wagered through legal sports books the state and the NCAA will be better able to monitor games for problems. ScoresOddsPicks has a dedicated NCAAF news section where our visitors can follow the latest betting news.

It has been suggested that gambling related money be set aside and given to youth programs in the state so that the NCAA are not seen to be profiting from gambling. This will help ensure plenty of skilled college athletes in the future and better define the different between college and professional sports.

Legal sports betting will be great for the NCAA as their biggest sources of revenue for the college athletic programs are television money and gate receipts. The average attendance for Division 1 colleges has been dropping for the past ten years. With the introduction of legal sports betting, an increase in game attendance and TV viewership will happen as those that bet on sports watch more games than average fans and this is a big win for the NCAA.

NCAA Championships In States That Allow Sports Betting

The National Collegiate Athletic Association has temporarily suspended its prohibition on championship events being played in states that allow sports gambling. There are five states that have already passed laws legalizing sports betting and these states will start accepting bets in the near future. These states are, New Jersey, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Delaware.

Pennsylvania is scheduled to host 12 NCAA Division 1 championship events between now and 2022 including the men’s basketball tournament, the men’s lacrosse final four and championship game, and the Frozen Four men’s hockey semi-finals and final. These are all high-profile events that attract a lot of visitors who want to spend money.

Many other states that have been awarded NCAA championship events have also stated that they plan to explore sports betting as well.

The NCAA have stated that the temporary suspension could become permanent and this will open up the possibility of holding championship events in Las Vegas which has been offering legal sports betting for a long time.

Could Legal Sports Betting Put NCAA Athletes at Risk?

Kenny White is the Vice President of data integrity at Don Best Sports a company that provides betting odds and information to sportsbooks. He was the one who discovered suspicious activity at the University of Toledo where seven former football and basketball players were tried and convicted.

Incidents like these have come to the surface again with the Supreme Court’s ruling to allow states legalize sports gambling. According to White, amateur athletes are the highest risk because there are no paycheck and they don’t make any money. If a gambler throws $10,000 in front of them and says fix one game, you don’t even need to lose, there’s a pretty good chance that they will do it. If they do and are found out that’s it for them, there is no coming back.

With Delaware and New Jersey taking their first wagers and Mississippi, West Virginia, and Rhode Island coming next, a lot of states are wondering what the impact will be on college athletics. The NCAA supports a federal model on legalized sports gambling and they have concerns about the impact on student athletes.

Jake Williams of Sportradar, said less than 1 percent of the 400,000 matches the company covers are deemed to have suspicious betting or likely to be fixed. He has suggested the NCAA along with member schools beef up corruption and integrity units and invest in education and monitoring.

Sara Slane, senior Vice President of public affairs at the American Gaming Association said that the more transparent and regulated a sports betting system is, the better the NCAA is in detecting when something goes awry.

To combat insider trading it has been suggested that league-wide injury reports similar to the NFL will help with integrity. It was even suggested that legal sportsbooks could pay the NCAA for streamlined information which will be an additional source of revenue for the NCAA.

Education and monitoring is going to be essential moving forward and while legal sports betting may be healthy for the market, there will also need to be balance.

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Week 4 NFL Free Pick Vikings vs. Texans
Oct 4th, 2020

LateInfo is up! 1 ET He is still the top outlaw source in the world is the biggest bookmaker in the Southeast, where draconic laws still do not allow onshore sportsbooks. Trading info with other large books, he is the source for where sharp info is going that sneaks under the radar because bets are outside Vegas and offshore. Biggest outlaw sharp move of NFL season to date at 1 ET. Cleveland vs. Dallas side.  Get the picks now

MINNESOTA +3.5 Houston

Fading terrible teams (based on winning percentage) as favorites are 153-108-8. Vikings distraction as Titans players tested positive? If anything, just something to rally around. One simulator has Minnesota covering 52 percent, as a three-point win projected. Another has Minnesota covering 57.3 percent of time. Another power ratings has Minnesota -1.5 and projected to win by two.  

This is the first time Houston is favorite this season. Fading favorites that have usually been in underdogs role is 153-93-12 including 18-4 the last 22.  That being said, they’ve played KC, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Go with the much more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 331-244-14. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.

Winless teams that blew at least an eight point lead the previous week are 49-24-1. Vikings led 24-12 last week against Titans.

We bet at GTBets

 

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Lesser Knowns Tips and Tricks to Get Online Casino Bonuses
Jan 15th, 2019

Are you planning to take a plunge into the online casino space and think it is effervescent in comparison to the traditional flamboyant brick and mortar casinos? Then you should think again.  Online casinos are picking up like file fire for a decade now. The precision of their artificial intelligence algorithms is comparable to that ofthe best-known casinos in the world. The cherry on top is the choices and various mouth-watering bonuses offered online to encourage new players to sign up. 

It may sound too good to be true. It is true! This is possible because they can afford to offer attractive bonuses owing to the cost savings, by eliminating investment on heavy brick and mortar constructions and ornamentation. For instance, check out a quick summary of new casinos and just soak in the reality. Today, there are several types of casino bonuses available online to choose from. These are designed to help players indulge in various casino wagers depending on their skill, budget, patronage, mode of payment and risk temperament. 

Some of the juiciest bonuses offered by online casinos today help you stay profitable. Check them out.

Matching Deposit To A Bonus

Bonus amount is matched to the amount deposited by the player. This amount is capped to a ‘maximum limit’. For example, if the ‘maximum limit bonus’ is fixed at $500, and a player wishes to sign up and deposit $400 to start, 100% of the value is matched. Which means he will receive $400 as a bonus. Now he can play to a limit of $800. However, if he wishes to deposit $800 he will receive the restricted maximum limit amount of $500 as a bonus and he will now be able to play with $1300 from his account. 

Fixed Sum Bonus

Lower limit or budget conscious players will get a fixed sum as a bonus. The amount is set irrespective of the high value. However, there is a low limit set. For example, if the fixed limit is set to $100, the ‘low limit’ may be set to $80. So, anyone depositing $80 and beyond will receive $100 as a bonus. This means anyone depositing below $80 is not eligible for this bonus. On the flip side,anyone depositing a lump sum of $1000 will also receive a bonus of $100. This method is not lucrative for people playing with high stakes.

No Bonus Deposit With No Strings Attached

This type of bonus is low-risk, and handed out to casual risk-averse players. The amount will be a small sum for sign up which can be retrieved after a few play shots. This value cannot be cashed. It is given in points to encourage the player to warm up. For example: The point value of the no deposit bonus is set to 20 points, $1 per point.  A new player who would like to try before depositing a big sum can sign up for for the ‘no deposit’bonus. He will be eligible to play with his conservative bidding along with the value set in the points awarded ($20 in this scenario). 


Special loyalty bonus for frequent visitors

Once it’s established that you are a frequent visitor, you get bonus points every time you log in to wager. This value is calculated as a percentage on the basis of your: [frequency X wager amount lost or gained]. The stakes are usually high and the bonus offered is higher in value in order to keep the VIP happy and visiting. Some online casinos offer fixed monthly or reload bonuses for their frequent VIP customers. 
Referral Bonus - Several casinos offer a bonus for referrals. You earn bonus points for every sign up through your referral. A neat way to add value to your bankroll.


Payment Method Bonus

Some casinos hand out an extra 10-15% to your bonus for choosing the prescribed preferred method of payment. Example: 10% bonus of your deposit value is matched over and above the bonus offered for choosing a particular bank. Very attractive! Great way to add a little extra to your bankroll. 

There’s a Caveat

One may think that it is easy to sign up and take the bonus points home without wagering. Casinos have been around for centuries and have metamorphosed to be resilient to any kind of withdrawal without wagers. Bonuses can be taken home only after a certain number of wagers or prescribed minimum cash amount played with. These wagering requirements are based on an AI algorithm which calculates the number of wagers required to cover the handed-out bonus plus a small percentage as an operating cost. It is also restricted with an expired date. 

Do The Freebies Come At The Cost of Security?

Unlike today, a decade ago the tools for security and transparency were not well developed and in place. It was easy for anyone to have players sign up for a bonus and disappear without a trace. This is not viable today. With the competition and need for consumer protection from various online casinos popping up; monitoring transactions, background checks, and transparency have become paramount. So, enjoy your bonuses.

Parting Thoughts

It is always wise to read the fine print before signing up to ensure you don’t land up in a situation where your money is converted to points that cannot be taken home. In short, you must not fall into a ‘Hamster’s Wheel’ where you have to keep gambling and cannot enjoy your wins. If the terms are unclear it is a good idea to talk to their customer support engineer for clarifications before you sign up. 

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The Great One owns BetOnSports360 and he is the founder of the revolutionary "forensic sports handicapping".
Posted Jun 1st, 2020 by

you've hit major points in here. 1. no deposit bonus has always something coming at you after. sometimes, it's in the payment method that will end up, you not getting paid and will have to continue playing. and i think, personally it's best to first and foremost find online casinos that are secure and transparent. been playing online, lately in https://casinokokemus.com/ but whatever casino site that is, i research and look for reviews.


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Ice Hockey Betting Mistakes to Avoid
Jul 31st, 2018

Ice Hockey is a fast paced, non-stop action sport and a lot of fun to bet on too. If you are new to ice hockey betting though it can be a bit confusing and there are lots of mistakes that beginners can make. To help you avoid this our article focuses on the most common mistakes NHL bettors make so you can make sure you dont do it. You can also check out Joe Duffy podcasts on sports betting for some more advice on how to make money

NHL Betting Mistakes to Avoid

Below you will find our top 7 NHL sports betting mistakes to avoid if you want to turn a profit with your bets.

  1. Don’t Assume a Game is a Lock: One thing that every sports bettor needs to realize is that locks don’t exist in any sports, especially ice hockey. In the NHL season, at least 20-25% of the games are usually decided in overtime or with a shootout. Some of the games also end up being 1 goal decisions. A referee making a bad call or a puck bouncing in the net off a skate or shin page can be enough for the underdogs in any game to win out over the favorites. Motivation levels are a huge part of the game and the effort that is put in too. The big teams often don’t put in as much effort when playing against a big underdog and this can be a bettors chance to net a profit when betting on a lobsided hockey game.
  2. Don’t Bet on Favorites on the Puck Line: A lot of beginning NHL bettors place their bets on the puck line instead of putting everything on the favorite. The puck line is similar to the point spread in basketball or football where the favorite needs to win by a certain amount. The puck line bets appeal to beginners because of the big odds that they offer. Even a -200 favorite will pay around +150 on the -1.5 puck line and most would prefer to win $150 on their $100 wager instead of having to risk $200 to win $100. What you have to remember though, is that the odds on puck line favorites are big for a reason and many of the NHL games are decided by 1 goal.
  3. Don’t Focus on Shots on Goal: A lot of beginners focus on a team’s recent shot differential when assessing them. This is where they compare shots for and shots against, but it can be misleading. Teams that aren’t as skilled will often shoot as many times as they can regardless of whether they are in a good scoring area or not. By getting lots of pucks on net, they hope to score on a screen, deflection, or rebound. Some of the better teams of course will make the extra pass and limit their shot attempt in favour of really strong scoring opportunities. The score in a game can also determine the number of shots on goal a team is prepared to attempt. If a team has an early 3 goal lead they may move to a more defensive play. Instead of focusing on shots on goal, we recommend paying attention to the more advanced statistics that are available such as shot attempts percentages in close games.
  4. Know the Goalie: The most important player on any ice hockey team is the goalie and many new bettors don’t pay attention to who he is. It is vital that you know who the goalie is for every game before you place your bets. Even the best goalies in the NHL will get between 10 and 15 games off especially when they are playing back to back games or facing an inferior opponent. If a backup goalie is going to be playing in the game you want to bet on make sure that you know what his save percentages and goals against averages are. If the backup goalie is poor then it would be wise to place your bet on the other team and vice versa.
  5. Home Ice Doesn’t Mean Advantage: As with all sports, NHL teams have an advantage when they are playing at home. They don’t have to travel to the game and they get the last substitution after the whistle which helps coaches to get the matchups they want. They also have the home crowd advantage too. This doesn’t necessarily translate to an advantage during the game though and most ice rinks now look exactly the same. Home teams still do win almost 55% of their games in the NHL but they don’t win as often as home teams in other sports like the NFL or NBA. As with all NHL bets, it is important to look at the stats for each team and assess them properly before placing your wagers even if the home team does have the advantage.
  6. Don’t Overreact to Injuries: Injuries happen in any sport but in ice hockey they are usually less meaningful. This is because even top players only play for about a third of the game. There are some players that you might worry about but in general it shouldn’t make too much of a different. Certain teams can survive without their top players more than others. The oddsmakers will also factor injuries into the betting lines and it is a known fact that players will focus more when they know they need to elevate their game to fill in for a missing teammate.
  7. Get the Best Odds Possible: Odds will vary depending on the sports betting site you use and getting the best odds possible for your NHL bets is important. Moneyline odds are especially important and the difference between +125 and +120 may not seem like much but over a long season this is a lot of money and profit that you could be missing out on.

How to Get Better at Betting on NHL Games

Now that you know what to avoid we have a couple of tips to help you get better with your NHL bets.

  • Don’t Overspend and Know Your Sport: This is probably common sense but you will find that many sportsbooks put smaller returns on money lines and puck lines. Just because this happens doesn’t mean you should splash out and spend more than you have. Stick with your budget and make sure you know the sport you are betting on.
  • Pay Attention to Pucklines: You should pay careful attention to pucklines. Hockey is a low scoring game and almost no NHL game ends with a point spread of five or six points. If you bet on the favorite to win within the spread you have a very good chance of winning more for less. Sometimes the underdogs have a very strong payout too and if your research tells you the game could go either way, bet on the underdog.
  • Use the Puckline and the Money Line: It does no harm to bet on the the money line and the spread and these bets can often be quite profitable if your research shows the favorite is really strong.

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NFL Week 3 Lines Posted
Sep 21st, 2016

Week 3 of NFL are posted and commence with what is arguably the most intriguing contest from a sports betting standpoint. Down to third string QB Jacoby Brissett, the Patriots face a rare game as a home underdog to Houston on Thursday Night Football.

It is the first time since November 2, 2014 that the Patriots were underdogs in Foxboro and just the fifth time since 2002. Technical handicapping pioneer Stevie Vincent of OffshoreInsiders.com says New England is 30-15 ATS in such situations going back to 1990.

Miami is in a rare case of being a winless team with at least two losses and a double-digit favorite. All seven times this has happened since 1996, the game has gone under with an average of just 27.5 points per game scored. The average posted total was 41.9 at price per head shops. Cleveland is down to third-straight QB Cody Kessler.

Brian Hoyer is another new QB. He is starting for Chicago in place of injured Jay Cutler. Playing on the road on MNF, Chicago is getting +7 at Dallas with rookie QB Dak Prescott.

The early strongest consensus as usual is on a road favorite, with 83 percent of tickets written on the Arizona Cardinals laying -4 at Buffalo. Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia over is the most popular total getting a stunning 94 percent of bets. Complete odds are below.

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Futures Bets Can Be Dangerous to Handicapping Health
Jul 7th, 2015

Beware of making consequential futures bets, including playoff series wagers. I have been shocked so often when I have heard experienced and winning bettors tacitly confess how early season wagers have biased them from making compulsory game-by-game adjustments in winning sports bets.

That is ironic, because another cardinal sin is when bettors and touts overreact to the previous contest. But in my confabs with sharps, I have heard several acknowledge, they lean towards Side A in a certain situation, but they cannot bet on them because they need Side B to hit a considerable season wins over/under wager.

So many of our angles, systems, and theories betting with Marathonbet UK are dependent on overall season results, recent game(s) performance, alterations for injuries, trades, surprise rookies and freshman or disappointments and positive revelations from a player at any experience level.

Just as a successful coach will have a full-season blueprint, but absolutely must study weekly game film and make proper in-season and in-game fluctuations, a gambler should never handcuff himself with a sizeable portfolio of preseason wagers.

We as bettors need to be right more often than wrong, but like successful people in any enterprise must be quite to isolate and admit our mistake, learn from them and turn them into a positive.

Clinging to a preseason proposition bet is embracing a deleterious bias when betting with Marathonbet global.

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Betting tips on the 2015 Super Bowl
Nov 11th, 2014

We are now past the halfway point of the season and the divisions are starting to take shape, with all eyes surely looking forward a few months to Superbowl XLIX on February 1st 2015. Betting on sports is an industry on the rise over here, with more and more people starting to put their money where their mouth is, especially on the mammoth that is the Superbowl. With the surprises thrown up by last year's finale you could be forgiven for not wanting to hedge any bets on the outcome just yet, although you'll get much better odds if you place a wager now, so now might be the time to start having a think. Hopefully we will be able to give you a few pointers here so all your cash doesn't end up in the bookies's pocket.

Currently, the four teams who have the shortest odds include last year's two finalists, the Denver Broncos being the shortest at 11/4 and the Seattle Seahawks the longest of these four at 15/2. In between the two are the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers, both at 13/2. Out of these four the Broncos and the Patriots are leading their divisions, with the Packers and Seahawks both tailing in second in theirs. According to this you may want to take a look at the Broncos and Patriots for your betting excursion, as it is unlikely either team will relinquish their lead so late on-especially the Patriots, who have missed out on the big game since 2012.

If you still can't choose which team you think will win however, or alternatively if you just fancy some more exciting odds then you may be more interested in looking at an alternative form of betting that still incorporates the NFL. One way to do this would be to play the slots game offered at iPhonecasino.com.au, $5 million touchdown. You can play this game for free, though your mind may change when you realise that the name of the game is actually the available jackpot.

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