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NY Jets and Over Conclude Football Picks Windfall From Pro Gamblers
Sep 27th, 2010

What a weekend for professional gamblers as the portfolio of GodsTips made them a fortune. Saturday both Wise Guys and Majors turned a profit—and obviously overall. Sunday, Center of the Handicapping Universe goes 7-3 led by the Sunday Night Total of the Year on the Jets over the total.

Here is what Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world, gave all his wise guy and whales clients Sunday.

Wise Guy plays from GodsTips are widely accepted by virtually every bookmaker, Vegas runner, pro bettor, Vegas insider, oddsmaker, and fellow handicappers alike as the strongest pick in sports gambling.

Wise Guy…

BUFFALO +15 New England

This is an ageing Patriots defense. The Bills’ strongsuit is their running backs and they have a chance to pound the ball with C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch to keep Tom Brady and company off the field. Look for a good mixture of high-percentage passes and a variety of power running plays as well as a ground game that will attack the edges of the New England defense.

Buffalo’s QB change is basically irrelevant, replacing one crap signal caller with the other. However, so often the switch gives teams a short-term lift, so we are happy with the timing.

Bills WR Lee Evans will give the Patriots’ young cornerbacks (Darius Butler and Devin McCourty) some problems, so Buffalo is going to have some success with their pedestrian offense.

Buffalo is weakest against the run, but the Pats don’t run well, so the Bills can bring more heat on Tom Brady.

According to one of our scouting sources, the Pats Darius “Butler has been one of the worst cornerbacks I’ve seen on tape this year. He has been targeted 20 times, and 17 of those ended up as completions or defensive penalties. That is bad enough, but the 236 yards (11.8 YPA) and two touchdowns that came as a result of those plays make it even worse.”

CAROLINA +3.5 Cincinnati

Going against road teams off a win as a home underdog is 348-162 +86 units on the money line. Our official pick is against the spread, but an outright would not shock us to say the least.

In the Marvin Lewis and Carson Palmer era, the Bengals pretty much always follow a good effort with a dud.

The Panthers are varying their coverages more this season and the Bengals should expect less of their traditional Cover 2. This is good because Cincinnati has been predictable on offense and struggles to make good adjustments. Carolina wins the chess match when Cincy has the rock.

This will be the Panthers key RB’s breakout game. The Panthers’ Jonathan Stewart was hardly involved in Week 1. Last week, he got eight carries for 43 yards; not terrific numbers, but he looked good. That game might have helped him get back into the flow.

Carolina has good DBs and will feast on an overrated Carson Palmer, prone to make mistakes.

Again, the Panthers QB change, more times than not, gives the team a lift short-term—and they certainly could use that.

Says ESPN’s Mel Kiper, “Sources around the Panthers have told me that a malaise had fallen around that team. Clausen, in his first shot, drove the team down the field until they ultimately had their attempt to score from the 1-yard line stuffed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ run defense. He has, in effect, represented a spark to this team, something John Fox was desperate to provide.”

He adds, “Clausen comes from a pro-style system and can make all the throws, getting the ball into deep, intermediate areas, like the pro game requires. He also knows when to dial it down and should often with the pair of backs he can check down to.

One of the reasons Fox went to Clausen this soon was because of the way Matt Moore was killing the team with bad red zone decisions. It may have even cost the Panthers a chance to upset the Giants in New York. At the college level, Clausen was extremely sharp in this area. If it’s not there, he knows how to put the ball out of everyone’s reach and set it up again. Rookies won’t always be mistake-free, but I think Clausen is an immediate upgrade in this area.”

Jets-Dolphins OVER 35.5

Sunday Night Total of the Year

The Jets love to run, but now can finally set up the pass. This could be a bad matchup for Miami—through two games, they are allowing four yards per rush; the Jets average 126 yards per game on the ground. If New York can pound the ball, that will set up some nice play-action opportunities for Mark Sanchez.

TE Dustin Keller’s athleticism should create matchup problems for the Dolphins’ underneath coverage defenders. Look for Keller to be an intricate part of the Jets’ play-action passing attack this week.

WR Braylon Edwards, who was arrested early Tuesday morning, won’t start. He will be in uniform and will be used at coach Rex Ryan’s discretion. But so many times we’ve seen underacheiving players like Edwards explode once something lights a fire under their rear. With all eyes on Edwards, he will have a big game.

Darrelle Revis is likely out for this game for the Jets. Miami must attack this opportunity.

Everyone knows about the Fins Wildcat above, but also look for no-huddle sets and exotic spread formations. This is an important divisional game and Miami knows the Jets’ defense is legit, so they will throw some new playbook elements in there.

Major…

San Francisco-Kansas City OVER 37

This is a competitor consensus. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side, we pass along as a competitor consensus.

TENNESSEE +3 NY Giants

Vince Young was dominated by the Steelers’ defense at home last week. He was battered, confused and eventually benched for Kerry Collins. Young will start again this week. But Young is high on the list of our predictably, unpredictable QBs. History says there is a good chance he will bounce back.

He has a supporting cast to succeed. The Titans have been employing more three-wide receiver looks, but certainly are not reluctant to run out of that grouping. Young is quickly developing as a good play-action passer. Because every defense keys on RB Chris Johnson to such extremes, Young can fake the handoff to his star back and hit a big play deep. Johnson has thrived from three-wide sets, but pushing the ball downfield off play-action could pay off. Keep an eye on Kenny Britt. He is the Titans’ most talented wide receiver and his role could be primed to expand.

The Giants battered offensive line has struggled and No. 2 WR Hakeem Nicks is not 100 percent healthy.

ATLANTA +3.5 New Orleans

The Saints have some big injuries. Running back Reggie Bush (fibula), cornerback Randall Gay (concussion) and linebacker Anthony Waters (hamstring) did not participate in practice are have been declared out of Sunday’s game.

Atlanta RB Michael Turner will play.  With backup Jason Snelling, who rushed for 129 yards against the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta has the secret to slowing down New Orleans and Drew Brees—keep him off the field.

Not only that, the Saints played MNF and are off a short week.

WASHINGTON -4 St. Louis

The heart-breaking loss last week notwithstanding, the Redskins are the most undervalued team in the NFL right now.  Last week’s game will assure they will not allow the foot off the gas pedal.

If the Redskins can contain and limit Jackson, they have a good chance of winning this game. Jackson is one of the league’s premier ball carriers. If he can’t run the ball effectively, the Rams become one-dimensional, and QB Sam Bradford is simply too inexperienced to carry this team. Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett feels that his base front seven can do the job, and he is not apt to crowd the box with extra defenders.

He is right. Washington has the talent to stop the one-dimensional Rams. With Joey Galloway and Santana Moss on the perimeter, the Redskins have a solid vertical passing attack. The Rams don’t have the personnel to pressure the pocket on a consistent basis.

Opponents have averaged a solid 13.3 yards per reception against the Rams.

PHILADELPHIA -2.5 Jacksonville

The Eagles are shaky on defense, but not nearly as bad as the Jags are on offense. Philly has a ton of weapons.

NY JETS +2 Miami

Like we said in the totals analysis, the Jets will get points.

The Jets love to run, but now can finally set up the pass. This could be a bad matchup for Miami—through two games, they are allowing four yards per rush; the Jets average 126 yards per game on the ground. If New York can pound the ball, that will set up some nice play-action opportunities for Mark Sanchez.

TE Dustin Keller’s athleticism should create matchup problems for the Dolphins’ underneath coverage defenders. Look for Keller to be an intricate part of the Jets’ play-action passing attack this week.

WR Braylon Edwards, who was arrested early Tuesday morning, won’t start. He will be in uniform and will be used at coach Rex Ryan’s discretion. But so many times we’ve seen underacheiving players like Edwards explode once something lights a fire under their rear. With all eyes on Edwards, he will have a big game.

Plus young Chad Henne will make mistakes against the aggressive Rex Ryan defense.

Rex Ryan expects his starting center Nick Mangold to play Sunday night against the Miami Dolphins.

Mangold, who has been dealing with a shoulder injury, should provide stability to both the Jets’ running and passing games if he’s able to go, as New York looks to re-create its impressive Week 2 offensive performance against the Fins.

Indianapolis-Denver UNDER 48

Indy struggles against the run and Denver’s head coach Josh Daniels like to run and keep the Colts high powered offense off the field. Expect Denver to flood the secondary with extra coverage and with the Colts clearly trying to establish the run last week, look for a surprising number of runs from Indy as they know long-term success is dependant on if they can establish the run.

Colts’ WRs Anthony Gonzalez is out and Pierre Garcon is questionable for the Indianapolis Colts’ game.

Now the pro bettors at ScoresOddsPicks improves to 14-3 going back to preseason with all “Named Plays”. Three are moneyline underdogs. Here is what the pro bettors got Sunday.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4) – Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET

New Orleans (2-0, 0-2 ATS) is trying to figure out where its explosive offense has disappeared to. The Saints have just four touchdowns through two games and, after losing Reggie Bush to a leg injury, it won’t get any easier. Dree Brees seemingly figured things out on the team’s game-winning drive against San Francisco, however.

The Falcons (1-1, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a 41-7 demolition of Arizona. The aggressive, new-look defense is playing extremely well; Atlanta was in the backfield all day against the Cardinals. The offense looked fantastic last week, racking up over 200 yards on the ground despite losing Michael Turner to a groin injury.

The Saints were gouged on the ground by Frank Gore last week. With Turner healthy and Jason Snelling coming off a 129-yard effort, Atlanta has the firepower to run up the score. New Orleans is due for a breakout, though, so we should get a lot of fireworks. Saints cover in a high-scoring affair so we also like the over.

Saints are a regular play but the Falcons at Saints OVER is the NFC  Best Bet Total of the Year

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3)  – Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET

Are the Cowboys (0-2, 0-2 ATS) finished? The offense looks terrible; Dallas was supposed to have a dominant ground game, but has managed just 139 yards at 3.3 yards per carry though two games. Tony Romo hasn’t looked much better; he threw for 374 yards in last week’s loss to Chicago but also threw a pair of interceptions.

Houston (2-0, 1-0-1 ATS), meanwhile, looks like a playoff team. The Texans have shown they can do it all, winning with the run in Week 1 and the pass in Week 2. There are definitely some holes that need plugging, however. Houston is allowing 429 yards passing per game. Yes, you read that correctly.

Big D stands for “desperate” this week. The Cowboys absolutely need a win. Look for Romo to step up and pick apart the struggling Texans secondary—it has to bite them in the ass at some point.

Dallas is the Oddsmakers Mistake Best Bet of the Month

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Posted by Mike Godsey (Profile) | Permalink | Comments (0) | Trackbacks (0)
Mike Godsey is the lead NFL handicapper for Godspicks, featured at OffshoreInsiders.com
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