SUNDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL TIPSHEET

September 6, 2026

WASHINGTON STATE at No. 17 WASHINGTON

4:00 ET — NBC/Peacock
Washington -23.5 | Total approximately 50.5-51.5

This is the first Apple Cup ever played as the season opener, and it also begins the Kirby Moore era at Washington State. The Cougars have undergone one of the larger personnel rebuilds on Sunday's card: only 24 letterwinners return from last year's 7-6 team, while Moore brought in 50 newcomers, including 29 four-year transfers.

That makes Washington State much more difficult to evaluate than simply carrying over last year's power rating.

Washington State's new quarterback is important

The Cougars will start Caden Pinnick, a transfer from UC Davis who earned FCS Freshman All-America honors last season.

Pinnick wasn't merely a game manager. He completed roughly 70% of his passes for 3,206 yards with 32 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and also ran for 437 yards. The concern is protection: scouting of his UC Davis tape indicates he was noticeably less comfortable when pressured.

Washington State's new offensive structure under Moore and offensive coordinator Matt Miller is expected to be much more run-oriented with vertical play-action concepts. That makes the running backs especially relevant.

The Cougars return Kirby Vorhees, and the backfield also includes Leo Pulalasi and Maxwell Woods. Vorhees, WR Tony Freeman and LT Ashton Tripp were all named to the Pac-12 preseason impact list. Four offensive starters return: Freeman, Tripp, Jonny Lester and Vorhees.

That's significant because the preferred path for Washington State is obvious: keep Pinnick out of obvious passing downs, run effectively enough to force Washington's linebackers and safeties forward, and create play-action explosives.

Washington has its own offensive turnover

Washington is much more stable at quarterback with Demond Williams Jr., who threw for 3,065 yards, 25 TDs and eight interceptions last season while completing approximately 70% of his passes. He also rushed for 612 yards and six scores.

But the Huskies lost their leading rusher Jonah Coleman to the NFL and leading receiver Denzel Boston to the NFL. RB Adam Mohammed transferred to California. Even more importantly for Week 1, returning running back Jordan Washington has been sidelined since suffering a neck injury in April.

That means Washington's offensive skill-position continuity is considerably lower than Williams' presence might suggest.

Transfers Trey Cooley from Troy and Jayden Limar from Oregon were brought in to reinforce the running back room, while redshirt freshman Quaid Carr is another player Jedd Fisch likes.

The center situation bears watching

Starting center Landen Hatchett does not appear on Washington's opening depth chart. Hatchett started nine games last season before a broken wrist ended his year. He progressed through most offseason work but had not been fully cleared for contact, leaving Sam Houston State transfer Kolt Dieterich in position to start at center.

That matters more against Washington State than the raw talent disparity might suggest. A new center making his first Washington start is responsible for protection communication against a defense trying to create negative plays for a quarterback who is also replacing major weapons.

Washington is also going unusually young elsewhere. Freshmen Kodi Greene at left tackle, Derek Colman-Brusa at defensive tackle and Ramzak Fruean at edge are expected to start. Freshman CB Jeron Jones also earned an OR designation.

Washington's biggest personnel advantage

The Huskies' defense should be the more trustworthy unit.

LB Xe'ree Alexander returns after recording 70 tackles, while Jacob Manu is healthy enough to potentially become a major contributor again after injuries limited him last season. Manu led the Pac-12 with 116 tackles in 2023. Washington also returns significant experience in the secondary.

That makes Pinnick's first FBS start particularly demanding.

Motivation

There should be essentially no motivational discount for either side.

Washington State is beginning a new coaching era in the Apple Cup and has the opportunity to make an enormous statement immediately. Washington gets its primary regional rival at home before three more consecutive home games against Utah State, Eastern Washington and Minnesota. There is no logical lookahead excuse for Washington with Utah State next.

Last year's Washington win was 59-24, which gives Washington State an additional revenge angle emotionally, even if personnel turnover makes last year's matchup relatively weak analytically.

Matchup read

Washington has the better quarterback, more overall talent and the more trustworthy defense.

The difficult part is laying more than three touchdowns when Washington is replacing its top rusher and receiver, has uncertainty at center and may start a true freshman at left tackle.

Washington State is inexperienced as a team but not necessarily devoid of offensive ability. Pinnick was extremely productive at UC Davis, and the Cougars' best offensive path—Vorhees/Woods on the ground plus play-action—is exactly the formula generally preferred when trying to shorten a game as a large underdog.

Most important matchup: Washington State's offensive line and running game versus Washington's front seven.

If Washington State consistently faces second-and-5 instead of second-and-9, this becomes much more competitive against the spread.

If Washington forces Pinnick into 35-plus obvious passing situations, the talent difference could overwhelm the Cougars.

Handicapping lean: WASHINGTON STATE +23.5
Secondary thought: UNDER 51.5

The enormous roster turnover prevents high confidence, but Washington's offensive personnel losses make 24 points a substantial number in a rivalry opener.

No. 24 LOUISVILLE vs. No. 9 OLE MISS

7:30 ET — ABC — Nissan Stadium, Nashville
Ole Miss -6.5/-7 | Total 55.5

This is easily Sunday's best game and arguably one of the most intriguing personnel matchups of Week 1.

Ole Miss brings back an elite quarterback-running back combination. Louisville counters with an exceptional running back, a potentially excellent defensive front and one of the country's better big-game coaches.

Ole Miss begins the full Pete Golding era

Pete Golding is technically entering his first full season as Ole Miss head coach after guiding the Rebels through last year's playoff run following Lane Kiffin's departure.

Golding went 2-1 as interim head coach, taking Ole Miss to the CFP semifinals. Ole Miss has also won five consecutive season openers and scored 40 or more in each of its last three.

The emotional question is whether the extraordinary momentum that carried Ole Miss through last winter seamlessly transfers into an entirely new season.

Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy are legitimate stars

QB Trinidad Chambliss threw for 3,937 yards, 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions last season. Ole Miss credits him with a school-record 12 games of 250 or more passing yards.

RB Kewan Lacy was even more productive. He carried 306 times for 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns, ranking among the national leaders in both rushing yards and rushing scores.

That gives Ole Miss one of college football's safest known offensive foundations.

But the Ole Miss offensive line is the weakness

Ole Miss lost both starting offensive tackles to the NFL.

PFF identified the offensive line as the Rebels' biggest concern entering 2026. The three returning interior starters all received PFF grades below 65 last season, while the tackle positions have undergone substantial turnover.

Left tackle Terez Davis appears settled, but right tackle was still a competition between Miami transfer Tommy Kinsler IV and Carius Curne entering camp.

That matches Louisville's defensive strength unusually well.

The Cardinals return edge rusher Clev Lubin, and their length and athleticism on the edge have been specifically identified by Golding as one of Ole Miss' major concerns.

Ole Miss can absolutely overcome mediocre line play because Chambliss is mobile and Lacy creates yards. But this does not look like the ideal opponent for breaking in new tackles.

Ole Miss also rebuilt the receiving corps

Deuce Alexander returns after catching 44 passes for 684 yards, but Ole Miss must replace significant production elsewhere.

The Rebels lost their top two receivers from last season, Harrison Wallace and De'Zhaun Stribling, along with TE Dae'Quan Wright. Transfers and younger receivers will have to establish roles behind Alexander.

That could produce an early-season timing issue for Chambliss despite his experience.

Louisville's biggest offensive question is quarterback

Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz makes his first Louisville start.

Jeff Brohm has been complimentary of Kienholz's development but repeatedly emphasized decision-making and avoiding negative plays. That makes sense because Louisville can construct much of the offense around the running game rather than demanding Kienholz win the game immediately.

Isaac Brown appears ready

This was the most important Louisville injury to monitor.

RB Isaac Brown endured an injury-plagued 2025 but Brohm expressed confidence this week that Brown is ready for the opener. Brown averaged an extraordinary 8.8 yards per carry last season, enough that Golding called him one of the best backs Ole Miss will face all year.

Louisville also has enough backfield depth to avoid running Brown into the ground.

That could be crucial because Kienholz's cleanest path to success is play-action off an effective Brown-led rushing attack.

Louisville does have injury concerns elsewhere

OG Avery O'Neal is listed out, WR Michael Quisenberry is out with a lower-body injury, and WR Kris Hughes is expected to miss the season. RB Marquis Davis has also appeared on injury listings.

O'Neal is the especially important absence because Louisville was already rebuilding most of its offensive line.

The Cardinals return only one established starting offensive lineman, with transfers filling most of the other positions. That unit now gets an Ole Miss defensive front featuring DT Will Echoles and considerable athleticism.

That creates a fascinating mirror image:

Louisville's defensive front has a favorable matchup against Ole Miss' questionable OL.

Ole Miss' defensive front has a favorable matchup against Louisville's rebuilt OL.

Whichever offensive line handles its assignment better may decide the game.

Coaching subplot favors competitive game

Jeff Brohm has consistently produced his best performances in these situations.

Louisville has beaten a highly ranked opponent in each of his first three seasons at the school:

2023: beat No. 10 Notre Dame 33-20
2024: won at No. 11 Clemson 33-21
2025: won at No. 2 Miami 24-21

Brohm's teams dating to Purdue are 26-15-1 ATS as underdogs, approximately 63%.

That's a team/coaching trend rather than a broad betting system, but it speaks directly to Louisville's preparation and psychology in marquee games.

This is also Louisville's first opportunity ever to win a Week 1 game against a ranked opponent.

Scheme uncertainty

Another subtle factor: both teams must prepare for meaningful coordinator changes.

Ole Miss' offense is now called by John David Baker after Charlie Weis Jr. followed Kiffin to LSU.

Louisville has new defensive play-calling responsibilities under Mark Ivey, who does not have recent college coordinating experience as the primary caller.

Early in a season opener that can favor the defenses initially because offensive staffs don't have current-season film identifying tendencies.

Weather

Forecasts around Nissan Stadium call for approximately 87 degrees with essentially no rain and winds around 9 mph. Weather should not materially alter either offensive approach.

Matchup read

Ole Miss owns the quarterback advantage by a wide margin.

Louisville may own the more favorable matchup along the defensive line, and Brown gives Brohm enough offensive firepower to keep Kienholz from having to throw 40 times.

The question is whether Louisville's rebuilt offensive line can survive the Ole Miss front long enough for Brown and Kienholz to operate.

Ole Miss also enters with significantly more offensive continuity at quarterback and running back, but less continuity at receiver and tackle.

This looks much more like a competitive four-quarter game than a comfortable favorite spot.

Handicapping lean: LOUISVILLE +7
Playable preference: +7 rather than +6.5

The full touchdown matters in a game with several realistic landing points around 27-20, 30-23 or 31-24.

WISCONSIN vs. No. 4 NOTRE DAME

7:30 ET — NBC/Peacock — Lambeau Field, Green Bay
Notre Dame -20/-20.5 | Total 46.5-47.5

The setting deserves some attention.

Notre Dame is officially the home team as part of the Shamrock Series, but this is being played at Lambeau Field. Marcus Freeman said he expects the crowd to be approximately 50-50, so treating the environment like a normal Notre Dame neutral-site game understates Wisconsin's support.

Wisconsin also has historical emotional attachment to the venue: the Badgers beat No. 5 LSU 16-14 at Lambeau in their 2016 opener.

Wisconsin's new quarterback changes the offense substantially

The Badgers brought in Colton Joseph from Old Dominion, and his legs are arguably more important than his arm.

Joseph threw for 2,624 yards with 21 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season.

More impressively, he rushed 158 times for 1,007 yards and 13 touchdowns, earning Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year honors. He ranked fifth nationally in quarterback rushing yards.

That gives Wisconsin something it has rarely possessed: a quarterback capable of transforming a broken passing play into a 20-yard run.

Joseph has already shown his legs translate against major competition. In Old Dominion's 2025 opener at Indiana, he rushed for 179 yards and two touchdowns, including runs of 75 and 78 yards.

Notre Dame therefore has to maintain rush-lane discipline rather than simply trying to collapse the pocket.

Wisconsin wants to become Wisconsin again

The Badgers' major offseason goal has been restoring a credible power running game.

Iowa State transfer Abu Sama III is expected to lead a deeper backfield, with Darrion Dupree also involved. New offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes wants the run game to become Wisconsin's identity again.

That makes Wisconsin's offensive-line injury news especially consequential.

Two Wisconsin offensive linemen are game-time decisions

OT Kevin Heywood and OG Emerson Mandell are uncertain for the opener.

Mandell has returned to practice but remained a game-time decision. Heywood is questionable.

If they cannot play, Lucas Simmons-Johansson is expected to handle right tackle and Stylz Blackmon could be forced into duty at right guard.

That is potentially the single most important injury cluster in this game.

Wisconsin's best route to an upset—or even a competitive fourth quarter—is running the football, sustaining drives and reducing Notre Dame possessions. Doing that with two reserve offensive linemen would become considerably more difficult.

Wisconsin's potential vertical receiver is also questionable

WR Jaylon Domingeaux is questionable.

He transferred from Southeastern Louisiana after catching 52 passes for 857 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. He's expected to provide exactly the kind of vertical element Wisconsin needs to punish safeties who creep forward against Joseph and the running game.

If Domingeaux cannot play, Chris Brooks, Tyrell Henry, Eugene Hilton Jr., Shamar Rigby and Malachi Coleman become more important.

His absence would make Wisconsin more compressed offensively and allow Notre Dame to crowd the box more aggressively.

Notre Dame is missing eight players, but most aren't foundational starters

Notre Dame has eight players ruled out:

DB Chaz Smith
DL Christopher Burgess Jr.
DL Tiki Hola
LB Ko'o Kia
OL Charles Jagusah
OL Chris Terek
OL Matty Augustine
WR Quincy Porter

LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa is questionable with a left knee injury.

Viliamu-Asa is the availability item worth monitoring closest. The expectation earlier in the week was that he could still play meaningful snaps.

Quincy Porter's absence removes one talented receiver, but Notre Dame retains Jordan Faison, Jaden Greathouse and Mylan Graham, so the Irish are much better equipped to absorb that injury than Wisconsin would be if Domingeaux cannot go.

Notre Dame's offense has changed too

QB CJ Carr returns, but the Irish lost an outstanding running-back tandem in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price.

Aneyas Williams takes over as the lead back, with Kedren Young and Nolan James Jr. behind him. Williams has flashed explosive ability but now has to prove he can handle lead-back volume.

The receiving corps has considerable ability.

Jordan Faison returns after leading Notre Dame with 640 receiving yards last season, while Jaden Greathouse also returns and Mylan Graham adds another premium athlete.

Motivation strongly favors Notre Dame psychologically

Notre Dame's 2025 season ended with an unusual kind of frustration.

The Irish lost two early games, then won 10 consecutive games, only to be left out of the College Football Playoff.

That has given Marcus Freeman an obvious offseason message: Notre Dame cannot afford another slow start.

There is very little reason to expect a lookahead either. Notre Dame plays Rice next week.

Wisconsin's motivation is equally obvious for different reasons.

Luke Fickell enters 2026 under significant pressure after another disappointing year. Wisconsin finished 2025 at 4-8/5-8 depending on postseason accounting used by various sources, and his three-year tenure has produced a losing overall record. A nationally televised game at Lambeau against No. 4 Notre Dame is essentially the ideal opportunity to change the program narrative immediately.

Recent betting-performance context

Last season Notre Dame went 6-6 ATS and 4-3 ATS when favored by at least 20.5.

Wisconsin also went 6-6 ATS, including 2-1 ATS when catching at least 20.5 points.

Seven of Notre Dame's 12 games went over last season, while only two of Wisconsin's 12 did.

Those are only supporting trends because both rosters have changed considerably.

Matchup read

The 20-plus point spread is asking whether Wisconsin can score enough to stay attached.

Notre Dame is substantially more talented and much deeper.

But Joseph adds a running dimension that makes Wisconsin harder to prepare for than last year's offense. A mobile quarterback plus Sama provides a legitimate route to 150-200 rushing yards if the offensive line survives.

The injuries to Heywood and Mandell therefore have disproportionate importance.

If both are available, Wisconsin becomes more interesting at +20.5.

If both are unavailable—or even visibly limited—the Notre Dame defensive front could wreck Wisconsin's intended game plan before Joseph ever gets comfortable.

Domingeaux's status also matters. Without him, Notre Dame can play downhill against the run with less fear of getting beaten vertically.

Most important pregame information: Wisconsin's offensive-line availability.

Handicapping lean at current information: NOTRE DAME -20.5, but this is the Sunday game most dependent on the final availability report.

Secondary lean: UNDER 47.5

Wisconsin's best strategy is probably to shorten the game, lean on Joseph/Sama and avoid a possession-for-possession shootout with Notre Dame.

SUNDAY WATCH LIST

The personnel news most capable of changing today's handicap is concentrated in a few places:

Wisconsin OL Kevin Heywood and Emerson Mandell: Their availability materially affects Wisconsin's rushing ceiling and Joseph's ability to operate.

Wisconsin WR Jaylon Domingeaux: His vertical ability prevents Notre Dame from treating the Badgers as a purely run-first offense.

Notre Dame LB Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa: Questionable with the knee injury and particularly relevant against Wisconsin's quarterback run game.

Louisville RB Isaac Brown: Current reporting is encouraging and Brohm expects him ready. Any negative late update would dramatically change Louisville's offensive outlook.

Washington C Landen Hatchett: His absence creates a new center/QB exchange and protection-communication combination against Washington State.