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Critical Saturday Morning Update Week 1 College Football PicksDepot Tipsheet |
Sep 5th, 2026
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL PRO BETTOR TIPSHEETSeptember 5, 2026 — Updated Saturday MorningThe biggest late developments are Indiana getting two important defensive linemen temporarily reinstated, LSU deciding not to use the two former NFL players at the center of the eligibility dispute, Tulane RB Jamauri McClure now being listed OUT, and significant heat in Iowa City. The most meaningful weather variable among the major games is Baton Rouge, where afternoon thunderstorms are expected but conditions should improve toward the 7:30 ET Clemson-LSU kickoff; wind is not projected to be a major factor. (Reuters) 12:00 ET — NORTH TEXAS AT INDIANAMajor Saturday-morning personnel upgrade for Indiana: defensive linemen Stephen Daley and Kellan Wyatt have been temporarily restored to eligibility by a state-court ruling and are available for the opener. Both contributed to Indiana's 16-0 national-title season before injuries affected them late last year. This changes the defensive-depth picture considerably because Indiana was preparing for the possibility of opening without two experienced rotational/front-line pieces. (Reuters) Indiana is breaking in TCU transfer Josh Hoover at quarterback. The defending champs have undergone substantial roster turnover but retained much more defensive infrastructure than North Texas. The Mean Green are undergoing an enormous reset with virtually an entirely new starting lineup and a new staff. The matchup question is how aggressively Curt Cignetti wants Hoover throwing once Indiana establishes control. This is partly a development game: Indiana wants the new quarterback and rebuilt offensive pieces operating efficiently before the schedule becomes more demanding. North Texas' biggest concern is dealing with Indiana's depth for four quarters. Indiana was historically dominant defensively last season, holding 11 opponents to their season-low point total. Motivation: Indiana opens as defending national champion but was placed only No. 6 in the preseason AP poll. Cignetti has publicly fostered a no-complacency culture, so the psychological profile is different from a typical champion opening against a huge underdog. Weather: Hot but nothing approaching Iowa City's extremes. No material wind issue. 12:00 ET — COASTAL CAROLINA AT WEST VIRGINIAThis is one of the more significant roster-continuity mismatches of the noon window. West Virginia begins the season with Michael Hawkins Jr. at quarterback and Cam Cook, who rushed for 1,659 yards and 16 TDs last season, anchoring the backfield. The Mountaineers are also making this an emotionally charged opener: a Whiteout plus Pat White's No. 5 jersey retirement. Coastal Carolina has had a severe personnel purge. The Chanticleers lost 17 of 22 starters, including essentially all meaningful quarterback production, and enter Year 1 under Ryan Beard. Last season's defense surrendered 209 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per carry, an ugly matchup against West Virginia's established ground game. There is no legitimate WVU lookahead: UT Martin is next. This is a spot where the coaching staff can keep the first offense engaged well into the game rather than protecting everything for a major opponent. Key matchup: Coastal's reconstructed front seven against Cook and a West Virginia offense likely to lean heavily on the run while Hawkins settles into the quarterback job. 12:00 ET — LIBERTY AT JAMES MADISONA fascinating game because the roster stories cut in opposite directions. James Madison: Billy Napier takes over a program that went 12-2 and made the CFP, but only five starters return. Quarterback Alonza Barnett III transferred to UCF, RB Wayne Knight departed for UCLA and four offensive-line starters are gone. The preseason quarterback competition centered on Arrington Maiden and JC Evans. Liberty: Jamey Chadwell comes off a disappointing 4-8 season but has more optimism about the quarterback room and offensive line. Liberty's final four losses last year were all by single digits, and the Flames actually finished conference play with a positive yardage differential. JMU's 2025 defense was tremendous against the run — the Dukes allowed only 85.1 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry — but a lot of the personnel that produced those numbers is gone. Motivation: This is essentially a regional rivalry, roughly 100 miles apart. Liberty also has direct revenge after losing 31-13 to JMU last season despite leading 13-10 before allowing the final 21 points. Key unknown: JMU's quarterback. Until we see the new offense operate, the Dukes have much more variance than the 2025 record suggests. 12:00 ET — OREGON STATE AT HOUSTONOregon State is starting Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson, who will be making his FBS debut at quarterback. That alone raises the difficulty against a Houston program coming off a major upward move under Willie Fritz. (Mountain West Connection) Houston was one of the more popular preseason “ascending program” evaluations because of continuity, line play and a manageable schedule. Oregon State is much more of a projection. The key issue for Oregon State is whether it can stay ahead of the chains enough to keep Atkinson from facing predictable passing downs. Houston's defensive speed is a significant jump from what he routinely saw at Mercer. Motivation: Houston remembers last year's matchup and has genuine expectations of contending in the Big 12 rather than simply becoming bowl eligible. 12:00 ET — EAST CAROLINA AT ALABAMAAlabama's opener is one of the more interesting huge-favorite personnel games because the Tide are beginning a new quarterback chapter. Alabama's official game material lists Ty Simpson as the returning statistical quarterback leader, but the preseason battle has included highly regarded Keelon Russell, so the rotation and how quickly Alabama gets multiple quarterbacks into the game are worth tracking during warmups and the first half. (Alabama Athletics) East Carolina has far more reconstruction than Alabama. The Pirates replaced the quarterback, a starting running back, their top two receivers, all five starting offensive linemen and six of their top eight tacklers. That offensive-line turnover is especially problematic at Bryant-Denny. Even a capable quarterback is going to have difficulty if ECU cannot consistently handle Alabama's front without using extra protection. Alabama's defense returns seven starters and should be the most stable part of the team. The larger offensive question is whether the Tide operate aggressively enough after building separation. Lookahead: Alabama opens SEC play at Kentucky next week. That's a mild reason to protect veterans if the game is decided, although the staff also has incentive to get the new offensive personnel substantial live-game reps. 12:00 ET — OHIO AT NEBRASKANebraska is an unusual big favorite because the opposing team is far more competent than the typical early-season paycheck opponent. Ohio has been one of the MAC's more stable programs, while Nebraska begins another season with significant expectations under Matt Rhule. The motivation angle matters because this is the first meeting between programs linked historically by Frank Solich, who coached both. That gives the game more emotional context than an ordinary MAC-at-Big Ten opener. The question for Ohio is the line of scrimmage. Nebraska should have a material size and athleticism advantage, but the Bobcats are much less likely than most 20-plus-point underdogs to simply unravel because of the environment. 12:30 ET — MIAMI OHIO AT PITTSBURGHMiami Ohio has a significant quarterback issue: T. Gotkowski is out for the season, removing an option from a unit already having to sort out the quarterback hierarchy. (Covers.com) Pitt has a comparatively stable roster and opens at home before Boston College comes to town next week. Miami Ohio has historically been one of the MAC's better-prepared nonconference teams under Chuck Martin, so Pitt's greatest risk is treating the opener as a warmup. From a personnel standpoint, however, Pittsburgh owns the clear advantage in front-seven athleticism and depth. 12:45 ET — KENT STATE AT SOUTH CAROLINASouth Carolina might have one of the most dramatic returning-production advantages on the board. LaNorris Sellers returns at quarterback, and explosive WR Nyck Harbor is back. New offensive coordinator Kendal Briles inherits a roster ranked among the country's leaders in returning production. Briles' offenses have historically played at a fast tempo and generated explosive plays. Kent State brings back 91% of its passing yardage, but only 11% of its rushing production, 39% of its tackles and 21% of its sacks. That combination means the quarterback may be experienced while the supporting cast, particularly defensively, is not. Kent QB Dru DeShields is one of the MAC's more athletic quarterbacks, and his legs give the Golden Flashes their best chance to manufacture something when the pocket breaks down. South Carolina has Towson next, so there is virtually no lookahead penalty. The coaching staff can treat this as an extended live rehearsal for the new offense. 3:30 ET — BAYLOR VS AUBURNMercedes-Benz Stadium — IndoorWeather is irrelevant. This is one of Saturday's most consequential coaching/debut games. Auburn: Alex Golesh takes over and brings Byrum Brown with him from South Florida, along with OC Joel Gordon and six former USF receivers. That gives Auburn far more scheme continuity than the phrase “new coach” normally implies. Brown completed 65.8% last season and produced 4,238 combined passing/rushing yards with 42 total touchdowns. Auburn does have injury uncertainty at the skill positions. RB T. Meadows, RB N. Davenport, RB B. Washington, WR B. Williams Jr., WR E. Smith, WR C. Neptune and TE J. Echols have all carried questionable tags. Even if several dress, the volume of injuries creates rotation uncertainty around Brown. (Covers.com) Baylor: Dave Aranda enters a pressure season after a disappointing 5-7 year and has added DJ Lagway at quarterbackplus new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman. Both lines were upgraded in the offseason, and Baylor plans to feature more quarterback-run concepts. Baylor WR T. Williams Jr. is out with a collarbone injury, while TE T. Livingston is questionable with a knee problem. Losing Williams reduces perimeter depth around a quarterback who is himself new to the offense. (Covers.com) This is a rematch of Auburn's 38-24 win last year, but Baylor actually had 68 more total yards despite being outrushed 307-64 and surrendering a kick-return touchdown. Motivation: enormous both ways. Golesh debuts; Aranda needs immediate evidence that his reset worked. 3:30 ET — BOSTON COLLEGE AT CINCINNATIBoston College has undergone one of the more dramatic personnel resets of any P4 team on Saturday. BC returns only four starters and is giving Division II transfer Mason McKenzie his first start behind a young offensive line. Liberty transfer Evan Dickens, who rushed for 1,339 yards at 5.8 per carry, provides a much-needed experienced piece in the backfield. Cincinnati counters with Georgia Southern transfer JC French, a veteran quarterback who enters behind a highly regarded offensive line and a deep running-back group. That combination is valuable early in the season because Cincinnati does not need French to carry the offense immediately. The BC offensive line against Cincinnati's front is the matchup to watch. An inexperienced quarterback operating behind an inexperienced line usually forces a more conservative early script. Lookahead: Boston College has its emotional Red Bandana Game against Rutgers next Friday, while Cincinnati has Western Carolina. That creates a mild situational asymmetry. 3:30 ET — TULANE AT DUKEImportant Saturday update: Tulane RB Jamauri McClure is now listed OUT with a foot injury. (D Ratings) McClure was expected to be part of a backfield with Florida State transfer Jaylin Lucas. His absence pushes more early workload and third-down responsibility toward Lucas and the remaining backs, and it reduces the number of proven options available to a rebuilt offensive line. Tulane returns only five starters and lost nine of 12 all-conference selections. New quarterback Zeon Chriss-Gremillionbrings substantial experience — 2,263 career passing yards, 17 TD passes and 992 rushing yards — but the offensive line has been rebuilt. Duke has officially named Walker Eget the starter. Manny Diaz said consistency separated Eget in the competition. Eget has 5,563 career passing yards and 30 TD passes and spent five seasons in the San Jose State program. (GoDuke) Duke's major weakness is defensive line. The Blue Devils lost all four starters, including three All-ACC performers. The projected replacements had combined for 117 appearances but only one collegiate start entering the season. That makes Chriss-Gremillion's running ability especially important. Duke cannot simply assume its new front four will dominate a rebuilt Tulane line. Revenge: Tulane beat Duke 34-27 last year after jumping ahead 24-3. Duke is acutely aware of that result. 3:30 ET — MARSHALL AT PENN STATEThe Matt Campbell era begins at Penn State, and he brought familiar personnel with him, most importantly quarterback Rocco Becht, who enters with 39 career starts, more than 9,000 passing yards and 64 career TD passes. Penn State imported an extraordinary amount of experience: roughly 62 newcomers, including 40 transfers with 337 combined starts. The upside is talent and experience; the downside is that a large share of that experience was accumulated in different systems. Marshall is not a typical huge underdog. QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson completed 66.8% last year, threw for 2,043 yards with 17 TDs and five interceptions, and ran for 661 yards with six more scores. Marshall finished only 5-7 but outscored opponents overall and outrushed them by 584 yards. Marshall also enters without a major published injury problem. (Covers.com) Motivation: Penn State's first game after a major coaching transition and the 11th annual Stripe Out. (Penn State Athletics) The thing to watch is whether Penn State's transfer-heavy defense communicates cleanly against a genuinely mobile quarterback. Del Rio-Wilson can create off-script yards if protection breaks down. 3:30 ET — TEXAS STATE AT TEXASTexas is healthy where it matters most up front. Earlier preseason concerns about the offensive line eased with LT Trevor Goosby and LG Laurence Seymore cleared. That is significant for Arch Manning, because this should be a game where Texas can establish its offense without forcing Manning to repeatedly create under pressure. Texas State has legitimate offensive ability and is not a typical lower-tier opponent, but the talent disparity against Texas' defensive front is enormous. Schedule: Texas has much bigger games ahead, so once the result is comfortable the priority will shift quickly toward health and reserve reps. 3:30 ET — BOISE STATE AT OREGONThis is substantially better than the generic “P4 giant against G5 opponent” label. Boise quarterback Maddux Madsen returns, and the Broncos have enough offensive continuity to make Oregon defend the full field. The major injury question is WR B. Ford, who remains questionable with a knee issue. (Covers.com) Oregon remembers the 2024 meeting, when Boise pushed the Ducks to a 37-34 game. That reduces the chance of Dan Lanning treating the opponent as a routine opener. The Oregon defense has major personnel advantages, particularly in the trenches, but Boise's experience makes this a more legitimate four-quarter test than most opening games for elite teams. Weather: No major wind concern in Eugene. 4:15 ET — NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT IOWAThe weather is the story. Iowa City is under an Extreme Heat Warning through 7 p.m. CT. Saturday is forecast around 93°F with heat-index values potentially reaching 104°F. Wind is only around 5 mph, so this is a conditioning/depth issue rather than a passing or kicking issue. (National Weather Service) Iowa also has real quarterback uncertainty. Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski are both expected to play, and the opener is being used to help determine whether one separates before the Cy-Hawk game. (Black Heart Gold Pants) That matters because a quarterback rotation can interrupt rhythm even against an overmatched opponent. Iowa is also replacing three first-team All-Big Ten offensive linemen, so the offensive front deserves attention. The Hawkeyes have an excellent running-back room, making a conservative run-heavy approach logical while the quarterbacks settle. Northern Illinois has changed conferences and has an interim coaching setup after Thomas Hammock's departure. RB Telly Johnson is its most important offensive piece, while transfer QB Taron Dickens gives NIU some mobility. (Mountain West Connection) The heat should amplify Iowa's depth advantage late if NIU's defense is forced into long possessions. 6:00 ET — WYOMING AT COLORADO STATEThe Border War is one of Saturday's highest-intensity games regardless of records. Wyoming embarrassed Colorado State 28-0 last season, so CSU has straightforward revenge motivation. Colorado State also enters a new era under Jim Mora with significant roster turnover and uncertainty at quarterback. (Mountain West Connection) Wyoming has its own offensive rebuild but believes new coordinator Christian Taylor and the new quarterback setup can substantially improve one of the Mountain West's weakest recent offenses. This rivalry often becomes a trench/field-position game, and Colorado State's roster transition makes laying substantial confidence on either offense difficult. No material 15-plus-mph wind issue is currently indicated. 7:00 ET — ARKANSAS STATE AT MEMPHISThis is a real rivalry — the Paint Bucket Bowl — rather than an ordinary Sun Belt/AAC matchup. Memphis has undergone major change after the coaching transition. Arkansas State has more continuity than it often gets credit for and is close enough geographically that the road environment is less imposing than a typical nonconference trip. Memphis won the last five meetings entering this year but covered only two of those five. The game has upset potential because Arkansas State's offensive personnel is experienced enough to pressure a Memphis defense in transition. 7:30 ET — WESTERN MICHIGAN AT MICHIGANWestern Michigan is far better than the usual MAC opponent Michigan gets in Week 1. QB Broc Lowry returns after throwing for 1,803 yards while rushing for 963 yards and 14 touchdowns. RB Jalen Buckley added 1,003 rushing yards and nine scores. Together they give Western one of the most established rushing tandems in the country. The Broncos finished 10-4, won the MAC and closed the season by crushing Kennesaw State 41-6. They won 10 of their final 11 games. Michigan begins the Kyle Whittingham era and wants improvement from QB Bryce Underwood, who threw for 2,428 yards last year. The new staff includes OC Jason Beck, OL coach Jim Harding and QB coach Koy Detmer Jr. (University of Michigan Athletics) Current reporting says Rod Moore and John Henry Daley are expected to play, alleviating concerns about two important Michigan defensive pieces. RB Savion Hiter is also expected to be involved heavily after carrying an earlier questionable designation. (Maize n Brew) Lookahead: Michigan has Oklahoma next. That's meaningful. Whittingham needs a clean opener but has zero incentive to overwork Underwood or defensive veterans after gaining control. Weather: mild enough for football and winds below 15 mph. (National Weather Service) 7:30 ET — CLEMSON AT LSUThis is easily the most important late personnel update on the marquee game: LSU will NOT use Dae'Quan Wright or Zxavian Harris tonight. Both former NFL players had received a preliminary court injunction allowing them to seek eligibility, but LSU omitted them from its official 103-man game roster amid the SEC/NCAA dispute. (Reuters) That matters because Wright would have provided another experienced tight-end option and Harris another veteran defensive interior body. LSU still has tremendous portal talent, but neither should be included in anyone's game-day personnel projection. LSU quarterback: Arizona State transfer Sam Leavitt takes over Lane Kiffin's offense. The concern throughout the offseason was his recovery from a serious foot injury. The roster was built aggressively around him, with transfer receivers including Jayce Brown, Jackson Harris and Winston Watkins plus a rebuilt offensive line. Clemson: QB Christopher Vizzina takes over, and backup/athletic package QB Tait Reynolds could also have a role. The offensive line is much less proven than LSU's defensive front, which is the biggest structural concern for Clemson. Clemson DT Vic Burley had been limited during camp, although Dabo Swinney repeatedly described the injury as day-to-day and expected him back for the opener. (Clemson Sports Media) The atmosphere cannot be understated: Lane Kiffin's LSU debut, home opener, and ESPN College GameDay's 500th road show. (LSUsports) Weather: afternoon thunderstorms remain likely around Baton Rouge, but the highest risk is earlier in the afternoon. Latest forecasts call for showers/storms fading near the evening window, temperatures still in the mid-80s and very humid. Wind is only around 5 mph, so wind should not materially alter passing or kicking. A lightning delay is more plausible than sustained adverse football weather. (Marine Weather) 7:45 ET — FLORIDA ATLANTIC AT FLORIDAThe important Florida availability report: OUT: RB Kelvin Jimenez. Jimenez is a depth loss rather than a catastrophic one because Florida returns Jadan Baugh, the program's first returning 1,000-yard rusher since 1992. (Florida Gators) Aaron Philo is Florida's starting quarterback. Older preseason references to DJ Lagway are obsolete. Philo transferred from Georgia Tech after going 59-of-102 for 938 yards in limited action there. FAU offers unusually strong continuity for a large underdog. Zach Kittley's entire coaching staff returns along with QB Caden Veltkamp, making FAU the only FBS program bringing back both its entire staff and starting quarterback. WR Easton Messer caught 104 passes for 1,052 yards last season, the nation's highest reception total. (Florida Gators) There is also direct coaching familiarity: Florida HC Jon Sumrall's Tulane team beat FAU last season, while Florida CB coach Brandon Harris coached at FAU from 2022-24. (Florida Gators) That means Florida has unusually good schematic knowledge of the opponent for an opener. 10:00 ET — CENTRAL MICHIGAN AT NEW MEXICONew Mexico enters with significantly more established leadership than a normal Group-of-Five roster transition. The Lobos' captains are OL Malik Aliane, LB Jaxton Eck, DT Brian Booker and S Austin Brawley. Eck was last year's Mountain West Co-Defensive Player of the Year, Booker earned all-conference honors and Brawley led New Mexico in interceptions despite battling injuries. (Mountain West Connection) Quarterback is the primary offensive transition after Jack Layne's departure. Central Michigan comes in without a major published injury list. The contrast is between New Mexico's veteran defense and a CMU offense still trying to establish its identity. Albuquerque conditions look favorable with no meaningful wind issue. (Time and Date) 10:00 ET — UNLV AT HAWAIIThis game has far more urgency than a normal Week 1 matchup because BOTH teams already lost in Week 0. Hawaii lost 37-27 at Stanford. UNLV is also 0-1, turning this into an immediate Mountain West game with substantial championship implications. An 0-2 start, particularly with a conference defeat, is extremely damaging for either preseason contender. (Mountain West Connection) Hawaii RB Cam Barfield is off the injury report and expected to play. UNLV WRs Taz Reddicks and Taeshaun Lyons are questionable. (FOX Sports) The larger UNLV concern is the offensive line. The Rebels surrendered six sacks in the opener, and Hawaii's interior defensive front with Luther McCoy and Geoffrey Speight Jr. has a plausible matchup advantage. (Mountain West Connection) Hawaii's receiver room remains thinner than ideal after offseason departures and injuries, which places more pressure on the running backs and short passing game. Motivation: Hawaii is staging a White Out. (University of Hawai'i at Manoa Athletics) This is one game where I would check the final Honolulu wind observation close to kickoff because the trade-wind environment can change enough during the day to affect deep passing and field goals. 10:30 ET — UCLA AT CALBoth schools debut new head coaches in an old rivalry that is now a nonconference game. UCLA: Bob Chesney takes over with Nico Iamaleava at quarterback. Cal: Tosh Lupoi debuts at home with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who threw for roughly 3,454 yards and 18 TDs last season, giving Cal more continuity at quarterback than a typical first-game staff change. Cal TE D. Thomas has carried a questionable designation. (Covers.com) The motivational element is strong: this is Cal's home opener and Lupoi's first game, and the school is specifically promoting the renewed rivalry with its former conference opponent. (Cal Bears) UCLA has more athletic upside; Cal has the home-field and quarterback-continuity arguments. 10:30 ET — WESTERN KENTUCKY AT NEVADAWestern Kentucky QB Brock Glenn is OUT. That is one of the night's most important quarterback absences. (Covers.com) WKU already entered the season with uncertainty because the defense was substantially rebuilt. Losing Glenn removes one option from an offense that must operate on the road against a Nevada team hungry to reverse a poor 2025. Nevada has struggled badly in close games, but this matchup is materially different if WKU's quarterback depth chart is compressed. OTHER SATURDAY PERSONNEL / SITUATIONAL NOTESOhio State–Ball State: Ohio State begins with Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith and a substantially improved offensive line. Ball State is breaking in a quarterback but returns experience at both tackles and center. Texas is next for Ohio State, giving Ryan Day reason to protect starters after control is established. Western Michigan–Michigan: the more important note than the huge spread is that WMU is the defending MAC champion with a veteran dual-threat quarterback and 1,000-yard back — not a rebuilding MAC bottom-feeder. FIU–USF: USF is in a massive transition with Brian Hartline replacing Alex Golesh and roughly 62 new faces; QB Michael Van Buren Jr. takes over. FIU returns more stability under Willie Simmons and QB JJ Kohl. This is one of the larger continuity gaps favoring the underdog on Saturday. Sam Houston–Troy: Troy has the more established quarterback situation with Goose Crowder, who owns a 16-5 TD/INT ratio over his recent starts. Sam Houston remains early in Phil Longo's offensive rebuild. Georgia–Tennessee State: Georgia has only Western Kentucky next, but Kirby Smart has historically emptied the bench aggressively against FCS teams. Tennessee State already played a competitive opener, losing 26-24 to Jackson State after leading late. Georgia Southern–Charleston Southern: Georgia Southern starts veteran transfer Max Johnson, who has 18 career FBS starts. Charleston Southern QB Lek Powell threw for 286 yards and two TDs in its opener. UConn–Lafayette: UConn replaced its QB, 1,200-yard RB, 1,200-yard WR, four OL starters and its top 16 tacklers. Only one starter returns from last year's roster, with 56 transfers brought in. Lafayette has 11 starters back and already played part of an opener before lightning ended the game. This is one of Saturday's most extreme continuity disparities. South Dakota State–Northwestern: SDSU is an FCS heavyweight and should not be evaluated like the typical FCS visitor. Northwestern's roster quality has improved, but this is one of Saturday's most legitimate FCS upset-threat games. MOST IMPORTANT SATURDAY-MORNING INTEL
I can also update this again closer to the noon kickoffs with final availability reports, warmup news, quarterback confirmations and any overnight/early-morning line-sensitive injuries. |
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