Week 2 of the NFL season brings us a fascinating Thursday Night Football matchup between the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers. Both teams are 1-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), but the markets, betting splits, and advanced projections are painting a complex picture. Let’s break it all down for bettors at every level.

Opening Odds and Current Lines

• Opener: Packers -2.5, Total 48.5
• Best lines (as of posting):
• Packers -3.5 (-105)
• Commanders +3.5 (-108)
• OVER 48 (-105)
• UNDER 48.5 (-110)

You can compare real-time lines across sportsbooks using tools like OddsLogic

Betting Splits

• Side: 68% of tickets and 64% of the handle are on the Packers.
• Total: 60% of tickets lean OVER, but 62% of the money is on the UNDER.

This creates a classic contrarian opportunity—fade the ticket majority when the money disagrees. Veteran bettors often look for these “pros vs. Joes” discrepancies.

Team Overviews

Green Bay Packers

The Packers looked sharp in Week 1, dismantling the Lions. Their biggest offseason move—adding Micah Parsons, arguably the best defensive player in the NFL—paid dividends even though he was limited by injury. Green Bay’s run-heavy approach (54% of offensive snaps) kept Jordan Love efficient, though it capped volume for his receivers.

Washington Commanders

QB Jayden Daniels followed up his Heisman-caliber college season with an efficient NFL debut: 233 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT in a win. The Commanders’ defense allowed only 126 receiving yards to WRs last week, setting up a potential test for Green Bay’s passing game.

Advanced Projections

• SportsLine gives Green Bay a 64% chance of covering, projecting a 31-21 final.
• MasseyRatings models it Packers 24-19 (favoring Green Bay and UNDER).
• SportsBettingDime splits the difference at 26-21.4 Packers.

That’s three different models, all tilting toward the Packers.

Historical Betting Angles

• Underdogs of +4 or less in Weeks 1–3: 156-118-11 ATS. (Trend leans Washington.)
• Teams rushing for 220+ in an UNDER result: 39-13 ATS next week (Washington fits).
• Favorites -2.5 or more on a short week, who were -3+ favorites in prior matchup: 40-12 ATS (points to Green Bay).
• Washington recent form: 13-7-1 ATS last two years, 9-3-1 ATS in non-divisional since 2024.
• Situational system: Washington 9-0 ATS on less than a week’s rest after a win.

For more historic ATS trend data, see KillerSports.

Free Player Props

1. Matthew Golden (GB) UNDER 18.5 longest reception
• Ran routes on <60% of dropbacks, just 9% target share.
• Facing a secondary that locked down WRs last week.
• Consider multiple unders for Golden.
2. Jordan Love (GB) OVER 223.5 passing yards
• Top simulator projects 259.5 yards.
• Washington may sell out to stop the run, opening air yards.
3. J. Croskey-Merrit (WAS) UNDER 10.5 rushing attempts (+100)
• Simulator projection: 9.3 attempts → 17% expected value edge.

Free Total Pick: OVER 48.5

This one looks counterintuitive. Both defenses flashed, and casual bettors see Parsons plus Washington’s front as a recipe for the UNDER. But history says otherwise. According to long-term database models, plays graded “math overs” have hit at a 944-707-28 clip.

This could be a trap line—when the total feels too high, bettors instinctively grab the UNDER. But the numbers suggest the opposite: this is a spot where the OVER cashes more often than not.

Final Thoughts

Both the Packers and Commanders come in hot, but the data gives bettors conflicting signals. Trend-hunters will love Washington’s ATS history on short rest, while modelers see more value in Green Bay. The safest angle? Look toward the total.

The OVER 48.5 is our free pick, supported by historical math, simulator projections, and market psychology.

For more betting intel, player prop edges, and updated odds, visit OffshoreInsiders.com, where contrarian analysis meets advanced simulations.

🎯 Follow the 🧠 Top Sports Betting Expert on ALL Socials! 💰🔥

📈 Best Sports Picks Daily 👉 OffshoreInsiders.com

🐦 Twitter/X 👉 @OffshoreInsider
📺 YouTube 👉 Subscribe Now
📘 Facebook 👉 Picks Depot
🎵 TikTok 👉 @OffshoreInsider
📸 Instagram 👉 Follow on IG

🚀 Win More. Bet Smarter. Dominate Daily! 💣