Every sport has a massive gap between the sharps and squares. That’s why there are sportsbooks thriving worldwide. If there was a betting sports minus clods wagering, bookies would stop accepting plays on it. One could reasonably assert bowl betting unveils the most substantial chasm. Most of the fairytales have extractions in the urban legend of weighing recent games significantly more than the full season ledger. Perhaps the subliminal or possibly premeditated conviction is that the long layoff makes September and October results appear to be an eternity ago.

Cold-hard facts, we sharps would say validated by logic, state that layoffs neutralize momentum. There is no such thing as “recent play” if a team hasn’t competed for two, three weeks or more. Long rest gives teams openings to fine-tune and all but eliminates momentum or slumps. Here are winning systems and theories for bowl betting, generally the opposite of the schleps beliefs. 

Fade teams off consecutive games in which they allowed less than 12 points combined is 11-1 since 2001

There are countless explanations why a defense would peak late in the season. Depth is a headliner as teams will wear down. Being blessed with a ball-control offense that keeps them off the field in another. Either way, less rested squads profit from time off. 

Teams with worse ATS margins are 81-39-2 against teams with at least a three-game spread winning streak as long as they also are not on said win streak

Spread margin, sometimes called “sweat barometer” is the same as points per game margin, but it is relative to the pointspread. For example, if a seven-point favorite wins by 10, their spread margin is +3. They covered by three points. If they win SU by only a point, their spread margin is -6 and if they lost outright by a field goal, their ATS margin is -10.

Joeybagofdonuts sees a team that’s been a superior bet and a hot one at that. Of course, JoeyBags is going to wager on said team. That is the essence of being overestimated.

All teams on at least three game winning streaks are go-against of 131-92-2 against teams not on a streak as long

Common theme: red-hot teams don’t desire a rest. It is thrust upon them and thwarts their recent form.

Teams that do not have a winning record are 86-71 versus opponent with a winning record

I won’t even voice his real name to protect the guilty, but one of the first guys I met in this industry was back in 1986. A journeyman peddler who went by aliases such Chris Jordan and OC Dooley, he quietly faded into retirement. To put it mildly, he was a walking cliché wrapped inside a fabrication. He would love to scream from the mountain tops that he loved to bet against teams “that did not deserve to be there.” A .500 team was target of his handicapping ire.

The problem is the truculent tout was an auto-fade. Teams that do not have a winning record are 86-71 versus opponent with a winning record. Of course .500 will not lack motivation to prove their worth.

Part of the reason that number is not as impressive as some of our other myth-busters is that one of his favorite regurgitations reversed course—after his retirement. It is 1-8 the last nine or Dooley’s theory is 8-1 recently after a 63-85 start. 

Teams that scored at least 125 points last three games go under 78-60-1

Wait, a team is in an offensive groove. How can one not bet the over screams the neophyte as he heads to the window to bet $25 on his can’t-miss bet. Offenses especially rely on being in a rhythm, so a break can affect them even more than a defense. Plus opposing defensive coordinators have plenty of time to derive a gameplan.

Teams with bad margins of cover, AKA sweat barometers, against quality teams based on margin are 169-113-6

Somewhat overlaps with an above theory, but with everything revealed about overreaction and perception, is it any shock bad spread teams are a good bet to quality spread teams?

 Conclusion: Did you ever take a debate class in high school or college? Students debate one side, then often the next day, take on the opposite resolution. That’s the way it is with many of the “intangibles” handicappers. But with advanced analytics, numbers are objective. By no means do they tell the whole story, but they are free of the bias of the handicapper. Which is why betting against the public is profitable. Bowl your man over with logic, not groupthink.

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has been a pro capper since 1988 on the scorephones and in the industry since 1986 with famed Dial Sports scorephones. His bests are exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com