|Oct 4th, 2010
“It is literally the DNA of football handicapping,” says Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world.
Duffy has announced the permanent capitalization of sports handicapping’s version of DNA: employing a popular and scholarly business and economics tool, Performance Gap Analysis and applying it to sports betting in exploiting oddsmaker errors.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, they’ve developed a “performance gap analysis”. It’s based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and are more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter. Any dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside, overvalued and undervalued teams.
However Duffy puts the fears of long-time clients to rest, “This newest weapon merely tests and more times than not corroborates and substantiates our existing football handicapping methods,” assures Duffy.
But much like DNA in the courtroom, it will occasionally refute the preponderance of evidence and has cancelled a small percentage of bets.
“We’ve been quietly availing ourselves to this prototype, but more so in hypothesis test mode,” informs Duffy.
However, only a small percentage of bets will be affected. In some cases, plays will be upgraded, others slightly downgraded, while a small minority cancelled.
By upgrading and downgrading, it does not mean simply changing a Major to Wise Guy or visa versa.
When weighing their preponderance of evidence, certain potential picks are often “on the bubble” so further validation will upgrade so-called “strong leans” to premium picks.
“Performance Gap Analysis does not supersede or replace our time-tested and proven techniques,” reassures Duffy.
Among the procedures long mastered by Duffy include:
Situational: letdown, look ahead, and “sandwich” games; revenge, motivational, intangibles, etc.
Matchups of strengths and weaknesses: using some of the top experts including subscribing to real “scout services”. This is of course very much taking into consideration injuries.
Computer systems: most importantly knowing that to be statistically significant, the system must have a z-rating of 4.5 or better or at least 80 units on the plus side based on one-unit per bet.
Contrarian info: Betting with the sharp and against the square bettor.
Realizing the top expert is not the only expert: The famed competitor consensus plays. If they have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources that GodsTips respects has a big pick on a certain side, they pass along as a competitor consensus.
Outlaw lines: The official outlaw line is what the point spread would be without any adjustments to public perception. GodsTips exploits the dichotomy.
Comparing splits: home/road variances are contrasted with overall numbers. Most importantly, knowledge of how to utilize the data and many squares abuse it.